Manchester City beat Borussia Dortmund 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.94 to 0.94. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 12, 11 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.94 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 22 graded markets, 11 landed and 11 missed, for a net -5.24 units (Brier 0.151).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.62 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.62 | Cashed |
| Under 0.5 | 24.00 | — | 7% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 7.20 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 6.00 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 3.05 | — | 42% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 5.39 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.91 | — | 38% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 5.25 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.83 | — | 56% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 2.39 | — | 40% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 | — | 93% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.14 | — | 44% | Cashed | +1.14 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.13 | — | 80% | Cashed | +0.13 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.44 | — | 62% | Cashed | +0.44 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.12 | — | 78% | Cashed | +0.12 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.45 | — | 58% | Cashed | +0.45 | Cashed |
| AH Home +1 | 1.03 | — | 80% | Cashed | +0.03 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.16 | — | 58% | Cashed | +0.16 | Cashed |
| AH Home -1 | 1.64 | — | 32% | Cashed | +0.64 | Cashed |
| AH Home -2 | 3.01 | — | 12% | Cashed | +2.01 | Cashed |
| AH Away -1 | 2.36 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away -2 | 1.41 | — | 4% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 22 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 11 W · 11 L | −5.24u | −24% ROI |
