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Home › World › UEFA Champions League › Pafos — Villarreal

Predictions by Market: Pafos vs Villarreal

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Pafos
Pafos
Home · last 5 W D L L W
Kick-off
Wed 05 Nov · 17:45
1:0
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
L L L L L Away · last 5
Alphamega Stadium · Limassol Referee Sven Jablonski, Germany

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · PAP
17%
Best 8.50
VALUE
Draw
25%
Best 5.40
Away Win · VIL
58%
Best 1.33
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.50
Fair odds
4.00
book 4.50 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 25% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (75%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw Value pick
Probability 25%
Odds 4.86
Show model details
Implied probability 20.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Longshot value
Probability 17%
Odds 6.86
Show model details
Implied probability 14.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 58%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 0.5 Longshot value
Probability 10%
Odds 17.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5 Value pick
Probability 25%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 40%
Odds 2.62
Show model details
Implied probability 38.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 43%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 57%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 75%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 90%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 60%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 56%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 54.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No
Probability 44%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 6 markets
✓ AH Home -1 Longshot value
Probability 10%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away -1
Probability 40%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home +2 Top pick
Probability 74%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Home +1
Probability 42%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 58%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 17%
Odds 4.90
Show model details
Implied probability 20.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 43%
Odds 2.84
Show model details
Implied probability 35.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 83%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
PAP – VIL @ 4.50
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →