Qarabag and Chelsea drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–1.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.65 to 1.08. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 19 graded markets, 10 landed and 9 missed, for a net +2.99 units (Brier 0.218).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.82 | — | 56% | Cashed | +0.82 | Cashed |
| AH Home -1 | 15.50 | — | 8% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 8.50 | — | 12% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.69 | — | 59% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home +1 | 2.62 | — | 38% | Cashed | +1.62 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 3.36 | — | 30% | Cashed | +2.36 | Cashed |
| AH Home +2 | 1.48 | — | 67% | Cashed | +0.48 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.62 | — | 37% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 3.5 | 2.36 | — | 41% | Cashed | +1.36 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.10 | — | 88% | Cashed | +0.10 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 5.50 | — | 18% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 5.58 | — | 18% | Cashed | +4.58 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.14 | — | 86% | Cashed | +0.14 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 | — | 96% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| AH Away 0 | 1.12 | — | 71% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.51 | — | 63% | Cashed | +0.51 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 1.40 | — | 71% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 6.25 | — | 12% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away -1 | 1.01 | — | 45% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 19 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 10 W · 9 L | +2.99u | +16% ROI |
