Liverpool beat Real Madrid 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.51 to 0.45. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 8, 9 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 22 graded markets, 9 landed and 13 missed, for a net -0.16 units (Brier 0.266).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 2.12 | — | 53% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 2.63 | — | 42% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 3.18 | — | 34% | Cashed | +2.18 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.57 | — | 64% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.44 | — | 68% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 2.61 | — | 36% | Cashed | +1.61 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.94 | — | 32% | Cashed | +1.94 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.05 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.97 | — | 36% | Cashed | +0.97 | Cashed |
| AH Away 0 | 2.00 | — | 42% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.84 | — | 47% | Cashed | +0.84 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.12 | — | 88% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 6.00 | — | 12% | Cashed | +5.00 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 | — | 98% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| Under 0.5 | 24.00 | — | 2% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.40 | — | 66% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home +1 | 1.26 | — | 58% | Cashed | +0.26 | Cashed |
| AH Home +2 | 1.02 | — | 95% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| AH Away -1 | 1.29 | — | 28% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -1 | 3.80 | — | 18% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away -2 | 1.02 | — | 12% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -2 | 7.90 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 22 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 9 W · 13 L | −0.16u | −1% ROI |
