BayArena · Bayer LeverkusenReferee Glenn Nyberg, Sweden
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 44% · book 2.50✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 56% · book 1.89✗
Miss
AH Home -1
AH Home -1
AI 43% · book 2.54✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.84 – 0.48
Δ +1.36
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
2 / 5
picks cashed
Model verdict
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.50 — +10.0% better than the market.
Bayer Leverkusen shows a solid home form with a slight edge in recent results and defensive resilience. PSV Eindhoven is stronger overall but less consistent away. The match is expected to be competitive with a moderate pace and a good chance of goals from both sides. The home team has a slight advantage in attack versus the opponent's defense, suggesting a home win is the most likely outcome, followed by a draw. Both teams scoring is probable given their offensive capabilities.
Bayer Leverkusen and PSV Eindhoven drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.84 to 0.48. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 6, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4.
On the scoresheet: Christian Kofane (65'), Ismael Saibari (72').
Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 2 landed and 3 missed, for a net -2.28 units (Brier 0.163).
