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Home › World › UEFA Champions League › Atalanta — Club Brugge KV

Atalanta vs Club Brugge KV 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Atalanta
Atalanta
Home · last 5 L L W L L
Kick-off
Tue 30 Sep · 16:45
2:1
Full-time
Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV
L W W D L Away · last 5
New Balance Arena · Bergamo Referee Espen Eskas, Norway
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 54% · book 1.90 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 62% · book 1.62 ✓
Hit
Over 1.5
Over 1.5
AI 80% · book 1.21 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.37 – 0.86
Δ +1.51
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
5 / 5
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.90 — +3.0% better than the market.

Atalanta has a clear edge playing at home against Club Brugge KV, showing stronger recent form and a better balance between attack and defense. The home side is favored to win, but a draw remains a reasonable possibility given the away team's resilience. Both teams have shown the ability to score, so a match with goals is likely. Expect a moderately open game with a slight lean towards Atalanta securing the win.
P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.90 ✓ Cashed
AI 54% Implied 53% +0.90u
+90%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ATA 3-4-1-2 · CLU 4-2-3-1
ATA · 3-4-1-2 4-2-3-1 · CLU 29 Carnesecchi 3 Kossounou 19 Djimsiti 69 Ahanor 16 Bellanova 13 Éderson 15 Roon 47 Bernasconi 8 Pašalić ⚽ 90 Krstović 11 Lookman 29 Jackers 64 Sabbe 4 Ordóñez 44 Mechele 65 Seys 25 Stanković 11 Sandra 9 Forbs 20 Vanaken 8 Tzolis ⚽ 7 Tresoldi
Subs used · ATA
46' Zappacosta ↑ · Bellanova ↓
53' Musah ↑ · Kossounou ↓
61' Sulemana ↑ · Lookman ↓
61' Samardžić ↑ · Éderson ↓
88' Brescianini ↑ · Krstović ↓
Subs used · CLU
63' Vermant ↑ · Tresoldi ↓
75' Vetlesen ↑ · Forbs ↓
88' Meijer ↑ · Sabbe ↓
88' Campbell ↑ · Sandra ↓
89' Romero ↑ · Ordóñez ↓

Statistics

ATA 2 – 1 CLU
48%
Possession (%)
52%
2.37
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.86
19
Total Shots
7
3
Shots on Target
2
11
Shots off Target
4
13
Shots Inside Box
3
7
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
0
8
Fouls
10
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
2
Yellow Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

15 · 2 – 1
38'
⚽
Christos Tzolis
Assist · Nicolò Tresoldi · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
Davide Zappacosta ↓ · Raoul Bellanova ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
Yunus Musah ↓ · Odilon Kossounou ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
53'
Yunus Musah
Yellow Card
▮
58'
Kamaldeen Sulemana ↓ · Ademola Lookman ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
61'
Lazar Samardžić ↓ · Éderson ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
61'
63'
⇄
Romeo Vermant ↓ · Nicolò Tresoldi ↑
Substitution 1
Lazar Samardžić (P)
Penalty · 1–1
⚽
74'
75'
⇄
Hugo Vetlesen ↓ · Carlos Forbs ↑
Substitution 2
Marten de Roon
Yellow Card
▮
81'
Mario Pašalić
Assist · Yunus Musah · 2–1
⚽
87'
Marco Brescianini ↓ · Nikola Krstović ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
88'
⇄
Bjorn Meijer ↓ · Kyriani Sabbe ↑
Substitution 3
88'
⇄
Shandre Campbell ↓ · Cisse Sandra ↑
Substitution 4
89'
⇄
Zaid Romero ↓ · Joel Ordóñez ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Atalanta beat Club Brugge KV 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.37 to 0.86. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 7, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 1.

On the scoresheet: Christos Tzolis (38'), Lazar Samardžić (74'), Mario Pašalić (87').

Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 5 landed and 0 missed, for a net +2.43 units (Brier 0.116).

Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 5 W · 0 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.90 — 54% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.62 — 62% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.21 — 80% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.42 — 65% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.28 — 75% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 0 L +2.43u +49% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
ATA – CLU @ 1.90
+3.0%
Edge
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