Match Atalanta vs Club Brugge KV September 30, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.90 — +3.0% better than the market.

Atalanta has a clear edge playing at home against Club Brugge KV, showing stronger recent form and a better balance between attack and defense. The home side is favored to win, but a draw remains a reasonable possibility given the away team's resilience. Both teams have shown the ability to score, so a match with goals is likely. Expect a moderately open game with a slight lean towards Atalanta securing the win.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.90 ✓ Cashed

AI 54% Implied 53% +0.90u

+90%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATA 3-4-1-2 · CLU 4-2-3-1

ATA · 3-4-1-2 4-2-3-1 · CLU

11 Lookman

Subs used · ATA

46'

Zappacosta ↑ ·

Bellanova ↓

53'

Musah ↑ ·

Kossounou ↓

61'

Sulemana ↑ ·

Lookman ↓

61'

Samardžić ↑ ·

Éderson ↓

88'

Brescianini ↑ ·

Krstović ↓

Subs used · CLU

63'

Vermant ↑ ·

Tresoldi ↓

75'

Vetlesen ↑ ·

Forbs ↓

88'

Meijer ↑ ·

Sabbe ↓

88'

Campbell ↑ ·

Sandra ↓

89'

Romero ↑ ·

Ordóñez ↓

📊 Statistics

ATA 2 – 1 CLU

48%

Possession (%)

52%

2.37

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.86

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 1

38'

⚽

Christos Tzolis

Assist · Nicolò Tresoldi · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

Davide Zappacosta ↓ · Raoul Bellanova ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Yunus Musah ↓ · Odilon Kossounou ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

53'

Yunus Musah

Yellow Card

▮

58'

Kamaldeen Sulemana ↓ · Ademola Lookman ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

Lazar Samardžić ↓ · Éderson ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

61'

63'

⇄

Romeo Vermant ↓ · Nicolò Tresoldi ↑

Substitution 1

Lazar Samardžić (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

74'

75'

⇄

Hugo Vetlesen ↓ · Carlos Forbs ↑

Substitution 2

Marten de Roon

Yellow Card

▮

81'

Mario Pašalić

Assist · Yunus Musah · 2–1

⚽

87'

Marco Brescianini ↓ · Nikola Krstović ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

⇄

Bjorn Meijer ↓ · Kyriani Sabbe ↑

Substitution 3

88'

⇄

Shandre Campbell ↓ · Cisse Sandra ↑

Substitution 4

89'

⇄

Zaid Romero ↓ · Joel Ordóñez ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Atalanta beat Club Brugge KV 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.37 to 0.86. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 7, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 1.

On the scoresheet: Christos Tzolis (38'), Lazar Samardžić (74'), Mario Pašalić (87').

Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 5 landed and 0 missed, for a net +2.43 units (Brier 0.116).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 5 W · 0 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.90	—	54%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	62%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	80%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.42	—	65%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.28	—	75%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 0 L	+2.43u	+49% ROI