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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Lille — Le Havre

Lille vs Le Havre 1:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Lille
Lille
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Sun 03 May · 13:00
1:1
Full-time
Le Havre
Le Havre
D D D L W Away · last 5
Referee Guillaume Paradis, France
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 49% · book 2.02 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 51% · book 1.92 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 47% · book 2.06 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.46 – 0.14
Δ +1.32
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.45 — +2.7% better than the market.

Lille enters this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Le Havre. Their attacking threat faces a less resilient Le Havre defense, suggesting Lille can press high and create chances. Meanwhile, Le Havre's recent form shows signs of struggle, and their defensive setup may be tested repeatedly.

  • Lille's home advantage and sharper attack
  • Le Havre's defensive vulnerabilities
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring Lille's control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.45 ✗ Lost
AI 71% Implied 69% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LIL 4-2-3-1 · HAV 4-2-3-1
LIL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · HAV 1 Özer 12 Meunier 3 Ngoy 23 Mandi 15 Perraud 32 Bouaddi 21 André 17 Mukau 10 Haraldsson ⚽ 27 Correia 7 Fernández 99 Diaw 7 Négo 15 Seko 4 Lloris 18 Zouaoui 26 Ebonog 19 Gourna-Douath 13 Doucouré 17 Boufal 45 Soumaré ⚽ 25 Samatta
Subs used · LIL
66' Mbappé ↑ · Mukau ↓
74' Giroud ↑ · Correia ↓
74' Verdonk ↑ · Perraud ↓
84' Perrin ↑ · Bouaddi ↓
85' Santos ↑ · Meunier ↓
Subs used · HAV
64' Pembele ↑ · Doucouré ↓
65' Kechta ↑ · Boufal ↓
75' Koffi ↑ · Zouaoui ↓
88' Kinkoue ↑ · Samatta ↓

Statistics

LIL 1 – 1 HAV
67%
Possession (%)
33%
1.46
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.14
22
Total Shots
2
10
Shots on Target
2
6
Shots off Target
1
16
Shots Inside Box
2
14
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
3
9
Fouls
15
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
71%
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
9

Match events

16 · 1 – 1
5'
▮
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Yellow Card
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson
Assist · Romain Perraud · 1–0
⚽
29'
33'
⚽
Issa Soumaré
1–1
35'
▮
Ayumu Seko
Yellow Card
Thomas Meunier
Yellow Card
▮
43'
Half-time · 1 – 1
Aïssa Mandi
Yellow Card
▮
59'
64'
⇄
Timothee Pembele ↓ · Fodé Doucouré ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
Yassine Kechta ↓ · Sofiane Boufal ↑
Substitution 2
Ethan Mbappé ↓ · Ngal'ayel Mukau ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
74'
▮
Issa Soumaré
Yellow Card
Olivier Giroud ↓ · Félix Correia ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
Calvin Verdonk ↓ · Romain Perraud ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
75'
⇄
Enzo Koffi ↓ · Yanis Zouaoui ↑
Substitution 3
Gaëtan Perrin ↓ · Ayyoub Bouaddi ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
Tiago Santos ↓ · Thomas Meunier ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
88'
⇄
Étienne Youte Kinkoue ↓ · Ally Samatta ↑
Substitution 4
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Lille and Le Havre drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.46 to 0.14. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 2, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 14 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Hakon Arnar Haraldsson (29'), Issa Soumaré (33').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.38 units (Brier 0.210).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.02 — 49% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.92 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.06 — 47% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
BTTS No 1.75 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.45 — 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.10 — 91% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.20 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.96 — 29% Cashed +1.96 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.12 — 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.00 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 — 92% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 4.82 — 20% Cashed +3.82 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.36 — 71% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.25 — 75% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Under 0.5 12.10 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.30 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.25 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.38u −2% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
LIL – HAV @ 1.45
+2.7%
Edge
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