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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Paris FC — Lille

Paris FC vs Lille 0:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Paris FC
Paris FC
Home · last 5 W L W L W
Kick-off
Sun 26 Apr · 15:15
0:1
Full-time
Lille
Lille
D W D W L Away · last 5
Stade Jean Bouin · Isilemulino Referee Mathieu Vernice, France
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 57% · book 1.93 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 53% · book 1.87 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 55% · book 1.72 ✗
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
1.06 – 1.70
Δ −0.64
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.93 — +10.6% better than the market.

Lille arrives with a clear quality edge and a stronger offensive profile, despite Paris FC's solid home momentum. The visitors' defensive resilience and slightly better form suggest they can control the game, especially given their pressing edge against Paris FC's defense. Expect a tactical battle where Lille's sharper attack challenges Paris FC's compact block.

  • Home side's recent unbeaten streak shows resilience.
  • Lille's superior quality and offensive threat stand out.
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play over frantic transitions.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 1.93 ✓ Cashed
AI 57% Implied 52% +0.93u
+93%
ROI on stake

Lineups

PAR 4-2-3-1 · LIL 4-2-3-1
PAR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · LIL 35 Trapp 17 Camara 42 Coppola 5 Mbow 19 Sangui 33 Lees-Melou 21 Lopez 93 Ikone 18 Munetsi 27 Simon 36 Immobile 1 Ozer 12 Meunier 3 Ngoy 23 Mandi 15 Perraud 21 Andre 32 Bouaddi 17 Mukau 10 Haraldsson 27 Correia 7 Fernandez-Pardo ⚽
Subs used · PAR
46' Gory ↑ · Munetsi ↓
46' Matondo ↑ · Lopez ↓
69' Kebbal ↑ · Simon ↓
69' Koleosho ↑ · Immobile ↓
90+2' Traore ↑ · Camara ↓
Subs used · LIL
78' Mbappe ↑ · Haraldsson ↓
83' Giroud ↑ · Fernandez-Pardo ↓
83' Perrin ↑ · Correia ↓

Statistics

PAR 0 – 1 LIL
47%
Possession (%)
53%
1.06
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.70
7
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Target
4
3
Shots off Target
3
7
Shots Inside Box
6
7
Corner Kicks
3
4
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
10
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
6
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

19 · 0 – 1
Moustapha Mbow
Yellow Card
▮
10'
26'
⚽
M. Fernandez-Pardo (P)
Penalty · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
A. Gory ↓ · M. Munetsi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
R. Matondo ↓ · M. Lopez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
49'
▮
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Yellow Card
63'
▮
Benjamin André
Yellow Card
I. Kebbal ↓ · M. Simon ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
69'
L. Koleosho ↓ · C. Immobile ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
69'
Jonathan Ikoné
Yellow Card
▮
72'
78'
⇄
E. Mbappe ↓ · H. Haraldsson ↑
Substitution 1
83'
⇄
O. Giroud ↓ · M. Fernandez-Pardo ↑
Substitution 2
83'
⇄
G. Perrin ↓ · F. Correia ↑
Substitution 3
Pierre Lees Melou
Yellow Card
▮
85'
Pierre Lees Melou
Yellow Card
▮
85'
Pierre Lees Melou
Red Card
▮
85'
Ilan Kebbal
Yellow Card
▮
90'
H. Traore ↓ · A. Camara ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+2'
Alimami Gory
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
90+4'
▮
Nathan Ngoy
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Lille won 1–0 away at Paris FC. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.70 to 1.06. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Fernandez-Pardo (26'). Pierre Lees Melou was sent off in the 85' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.42 units (Brier 0.189).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 1.93 — 57% Cashed +0.93 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.87 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.72 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.05 — 45% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.95 — 47% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.83 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.25 — 82% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.10 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.41 — 57% Cashed +0.41 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.28 — 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 93% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.35 — 69% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Draw 3.60 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.60 — 24% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Under 0.5 11.00 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.87 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.90 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.42u −14% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
PAR – LIL @ 1.93
+10.6%
Edge
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