Match Lens vs Toulouse April 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Lens enter this Ligue 1 clash with a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting a robust defensive setup that challenges Toulouse's moderate attack. Their recent form shows resilience despite some inconsistency, while Toulouse's away struggles and lower offensive threat suggest a tough outing.

Lens's pressing and compact block limit Toulouse's chances.
Home side's attacking edge could exploit Toulouse's defensive gaps.
Moderate pace expected, favoring disciplined play over frantic end-to-end action.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

LEN 3-4-2-1 · TOU 3-4-2-1

LEN · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · TOU

38 Fofana

Subs used · LEN

55'

Saint-Maximin ↑ ·

Said ↓

55'

Edouard ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

72'

Thauvin ↑ ·

Sotoca ↓

85'

Baidoo ↑ ·

Masuaku ↓

85'

Bulatovic ↑ ·

Thomasson ↓

Subs used · TOU

46'

Demba ↑ ·

Hidalgo ↓

64'

Russell-Rowe ↑ ·

Emersonn ↓

64'

Methalie ↑ ·

Donnum ↓

72'

Sidibe ↑ ·

Cresswell ↓

76'

Sauer ↑ ·

Vossah ↓

📊 Statistics

LEN 3 – 2 TOU

78%

Possession (%)

22%

3.77

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.41

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

63%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 3 – 2

⚽

C. Casseres

0–1

13'

⚽

S. Koumbassa

Assist · S. Hidalgo · 0–2

17'

▮

Yann Gboho

Red Card

Arthur Masuaku

Yellow Card

▮

45'

Half-time · 0 – 2

46'

⇄

P. Demba ↓ · S. Hidalgo ↑

Substitution 1

A. Saint-Maximin ↓ · W. Said ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

O. Edouard ↓ · R. Fofana ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

55'

S. Abdulhamid

Assist · A. Saint-Maximin · 1–2

⚽

61'

64'

⇄

J. Russell-Rowe ↓ · Emersonn ↑

Substitution 2

64'

⇄

D. Methalie ↓ · A. Donnum ↑

Substitution 3

A. Thomasson

2–2

⚽

67'

F. Thauvin ↓ · F. Sotoca ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

⇄

D. Sidibe ↓ · C. Cresswell ↑

Substitution 4

76'

⇄

M. Sauer ↓ · A. Vossah ↑

Substitution 5

S. Baidoo ↓ · A. Masuaku ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

A. Bulatovic ↓ · A. Thomasson ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

88'

▮

Mario Sauer

Yellow Card

I. Ganiou

Assist · A. Bulatovic · 3–2

⚽

90'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Lens beat Toulouse 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 78% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.77 to 0.41. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 42 shots to 5, 13 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 14 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 10 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 2 from 0.41 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: C. Casseres (6'), S. Koumbassa (13'), S. Abdulhamid (61'), A. Thomasson (67'), I. Ganiou (90'). Yann Gboho was sent off in the 17' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.24 units (Brier 0.121).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.63	—	66%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.75	—	59%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.82	—	55%	Cashed	+0.82	Cashed
BTTS No	2.05	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.25	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.48	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.88	—	37%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.17	—	88%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.48	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.23	—	66%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	81%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Draw	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.40	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.04	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.49	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.24u	−25% ROI