Match Metz vs Paris FC April 19, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.05 — +12.5% better than the market.

Paris FC arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Metz’s defensive solidity might keep things tight, but Paris FC’s sharper attack and consistent away momentum could break through. The home side’s slight home edge is tempered by their struggle for points, while the match pace hints at a balanced tempo with moderate goal potential.

Paris FC’s offensive pressure vs Metz’s compact defense
Recent form favors the visitors’ consistency
Home side’s defensive resilience may limit scoring

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.05 ✗ Lost

AI 55% Implied 49% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MET 4-2-3-1 · PAR 4-1-4-1

MET · 4-2-3-1 4-1-4-1 · PAR

30 Diallo

Subs used · MET

30'

Kvilitaia ↑ ·

Diallo ↓

57'

Sarr ↑ ·

Mboula ↓

74'

Pandore ↑ ·

Yegbe ↓

75'

Stambouli ↑ ·

Deminguet ↓

75'

Michal ↑ ·

Mbala ↓

Subs used · PAR

66'

Marchetti ↑ ·

Gory ↓

78'

Camara ↑ ·

Traore ↓

78'

Geubbels ↑ ·

Immobile ↓

88'

Sangui ↑ ·

De Smet ↓

88'

Cafaro ↑ ·

Koleosho ↓

📊 Statistics

MET 1 – 3 PAR

51%

Possession (%)

49%

1.08

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.48

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 1 – 3

Urie-Michel Mboula

Yellow Card

▮

13'

21'

⚽

A. Gory

0–1

G. Kvilitaia ↓ · H. Diallo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

30'

G. Kvilitaia

Assist · S. Sane · 1–1

⚽

31'

Koffi Kouao

Yellow Card

▮

38'

45+1'

▮

Ilan Kebbal

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

B. Sarr ↓ · U. Mboula ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

57'

62'

▮

Alimami Gory

Yellow Card

66'

⇄

V. Marchetti ↓ · A. Gory ↑

Substitution 1

69'

⚽

Otavio

Assist · C. Immobile · 1–2

J. Pandore ↓ · T. Yegbe ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

B. Stambouli ↓ · J. Deminguet ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

75'

L. Michal ↓ · N. Mbala ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

75'

78'

⇄

A. Camara ↓ · H. Traore ↑

Substitution 2

78'

⇄

W. Geubbels ↓ · C. Immobile ↑

Substitution 3

88'

⇄

N. Sangui ↓ · T. De Smet ↑

Substitution 4

88'

⇄

M. Cafaro ↓ · L. Koleosho ↑

Substitution 5

89'

⚽

I. Kebbal

Assist · D. Coppola · 1–3

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Paris FC won 3–1 away at Metz. At half-time it was 1–1.

In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.48 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Gory (21'), G. Kvilitaia (31'), Otavio (69'), I. Kebbal (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.52 units (Brier 0.193).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.21	—	54%	Cashed	+1.21	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.05	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.15	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	50%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.97	—	45%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.78	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.58	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.33	—	79%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.53	—	54%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.63	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	—	71%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.30	—	25%	Cashed	+2.30	Cashed
Home Win	3.63	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.52u	−15% ROI