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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Paris Saint Germain — Lyon

Predictions by Market: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Sun 19 Apr · 18:45
1:2
Full-time
Lyon
Lyon
W W W L L Away · last 5
Parc des Princes · Paris Referee Jérôme Brisard, France

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · PSG
76%
Best 1.31
Draw
17%
Best 5.75
Away Win · LYO
8%
Best 8.97
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.19
Fair odds
5.95
book 6.19 · +4.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 17% · EV +4.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (76%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 16.8%
Odds 6.19
Show model details
Implied probability 16.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 7.5%
Odds 9.75
Show model details
Implied probability 10.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 55.4%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 44.6%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 33.8%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 66.2%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 15.2%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 84.8%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 7.5%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92.5%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 24.3%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
PSG – LYO @ 6.19
+4.0%
Edge
Forecast →