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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Marseille — Metz

Predictions by Market: Marseille vs Metz

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Marseille
Marseille
Home · last 5 L D L W W
Kick-off
Fri 10 Apr · 19:05
3:1
Full-time
Metz
Metz
L D L L D Away · last 5
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille Referee Stephanie Frappart, France

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MAR
78%
Best 1.26
Draw
16%
Best 6.50
Away Win · MET
6%
Best 10.40
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 21.00
Fair odds
18.32
book 21.00 · +14.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 5% · EV +14.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (95%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw
Probability 16.2%
Odds 6.60
Show model details
Implied probability 15.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 78%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 5.9%
Odds 12.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 36.8%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 41.3%
Odds 2.84
Show model details
Implied probability 35.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 58.7%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5.5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 51.2%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 48.8%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 78%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 5.9%
Odds 6.45
Show model details
Implied probability 15.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.1%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 22.1%
Odds 4.05
Show model details
Implied probability 24.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
MAR – MET @ 21.00
+14.7%
Edge
Forecast →