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Home France Ligue 1 Marseille — Metz

Predictions Marseille vs Metz April 10, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Marseille
Marseille
Home · last 5 L D L W W
Kick-off
Fri 10 Apr · 19:05
3:1
Full-time
Metz
Metz
L D L L D Away · last 5
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille Referee Stephanie Frappart, France
Home Win · MAR
78%
Best 1.26
Draw
16%
Best 6.50
Away Win · MET
6%
Best 10.40
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 21.00
Fair odds
18.32
book 21.00 · +14.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 5% · EV +14.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (95%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 16.2%
Odds 6.60
Show model details
Implied probability 15.2%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 78%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 5.9%
Odds 12.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 36.8%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 41.3%
Odds 2.84
Show model details
Implied probability 35.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 58.7%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 51.2%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.8%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 78%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 5.9%
Odds 6.45
Show model details
Implied probability 15.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.1%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 22.1%
Odds 4.05
Show model details
Implied probability 24.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
MAR – MET @ 21.00
+14.7%
Edge
Forecast →