Match Marseille vs Metz April 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.79 — +13.1% better than the market.

Marseille looks set to leverage a strong home edge and a significant quality gap against Metz. Despite mixed recent form, Marseille's offensive pressure and defensive solidity at Orange Vélodrome should challenge Metz's struggling defense. Metz's low scoring threat and recent poor form suggest Marseille's compact block and set-piece threat could dominate. Expect a controlled tempo with Marseille pressing for goals while managing risk.

Home momentum with solid defense
Metz's offensive struggles vs Marseille's defense
Moderate pace favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.79 ✗ Lost

AI 63% Implied 56% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAR 3-4-2-1 · MET 4-2-3-1

MAR · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · MET

17 Aubameyang ⚽

Subs used · MAR

72'

Vermeeren ↑ ·

Aubameyang ↓

82'

Nnadi ↑ ·

Timber ↓

82'

J. Traore ↑ ·

Greenwood ↓

90+1'

Abdelli ↑ ·

Paixao ↓

Subs used · MET

81'

Mbala ↑ ·

Deminguet ↓

82'

Ballo-Toure ↑ ·

Colin ↓

87'

Michal ↑ ·

Toure ↓

📊 Statistics

MAR 3 – 1 MET

54%

Possession (%)

46%

3.33

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.49

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 3 – 1

P. Aubameyang

Assist · M. Greenwood · 1–0

⚽

13'

Facundo Medina

Yellow Card

▮

45+2'

Half-time · 1 – 0

I. Paixao

Assist · M. Greenwood · 2–0

⚽

48'

49'

⚽

G. Tsitaishvili

Assist · G. Hein · 2–1

56'

▮

Maxime Colin

Yellow Card

A. Vermeeren ↓ · P. Aubameyang ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

72'

81'

⇄

N. Mbala ↓ · J. Deminguet ↑

Substitution 1

T. Nnadi ↓ · Q. Timber ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

82'

H. J. Traore ↓ · M. Greenwood ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

82'

⇄

F. Ballo-Toure ↓ · M. Colin ↑

Substitution 2

84'

▮

Koffi Kouao

Yellow Card

87'

⇄

L. Michal ↓ · A. Toure ↑

Substitution 3

H. J. Traore

Assist · A. Gouiri · 3–1

⚽

90'

H. Abdelli ↓ · I. Paixao ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Marseille beat Metz 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.33 to 0.49. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 6, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Aubameyang (13'), I. Paixao (48'), G. Tsitaishvili (49'), H. J. Traore (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.78 units (Brier 0.113).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.79	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.91	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	49%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.25	—	37%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.84	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.50	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.60	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.07	—	94%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Home Win	1.29	—	78%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.47	—	59%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.05	—	78%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	21.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.15	—	80%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Double Chance X2	4.05	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	12.50	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.45	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.78u	−34% ROI