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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Lens — Metz

Predictions by Market: Lens vs Metz

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Lens
Lens
Home · last 5 D D W L W
Kick-off
Sun 08 Mar · 14:00
3:0
Full-time
Metz
Metz
L D L L D Away · last 5
Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Lens Referee Mathieu Vernice, France

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LEN
77%
Best 1.27
Draw
17%
Best 5.90
Away Win · MET
6%
Best 10.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.36
Fair odds
6.05
book 6.36 · +5.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 17% · EV +5.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (77%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw
Probability 16.5%
Odds 6.36
Show model details
Implied probability 15.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 6.3%
Odds 11.60
Show model details
Implied probability 8.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 61.3%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 39.6%
Odds 2.63
Show model details
Implied probability 38%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 38.7%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 18.6%
Odds 5.60
Show model details
Implied probability 17.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5.1%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 81.4%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 48.6%
Odds 2.03
Show model details
Implied probability 49.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 51.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 6.3%
Odds 6.45
Show model details
Implied probability 15.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.7%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 22.8%
Odds 4.06
Show model details
Implied probability 24.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
LEN – MET @ 6.36
+5.1%
Edge
Forecast →