Match Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 March 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.94 — +8.7% better than the market.

Brest arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they can control the game despite playing away. Metz’s defensive solidity at home offers some resistance, but Brest’s sharper attack and momentum could unlock chances. Expect a tactical battle where Brest’s pressing and offensive threat test Metz’s compact block.

Brest’s superior overall strength and form advantage
Metz’s home defensive resilience
Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal expectations

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.94 ✓ Cashed

AI 56% Implied 52% +0.94u

+94%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MET 4-1-4-1 · BRE 4-2-3-1

MET · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · BRE

30 Diallo

Subs used · MET

46'

Abuashvili ↑ ·

Munongo ↓

59'

Kvilitaia ↑ ·

Sarr ↓

76'

Michal ↑ ·

Colin ↓

76'

Mbala ↑ ·

Toure ↓

81'

Mboula ↑ ·

Traore ↓

Subs used · BRE

26'

Locko ↑ ·

Dina Ebimbe ↓

74'

Labeau Lascary ↑ ·

Doumbia ↓

83'

Tousart ↑ ·

Del Castillo ↓

📊 Statistics

MET 0 – 1 BRE

66%

Possession (%)

34%

1.52

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.87

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 0 – 1

22'

▮

Daouda Guindo

Red Card

26'

⇄

B. Locko ↓ · J. Dina Ebimbe ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

G. Abuashvili ↓ · B. Munongo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Georgiy Tsitaishvili

Yellow Card

▮

51'

52'

▮

Michel Diaz

Yellow Card

G. Kvilitaia ↓ · B. Sarr ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

Sadibou Sané

Yellow Card

▮

67'

69'

⚽

L. Ajorque

Assist · B. Chardonnet · 0–1

74'

⇄

R. Labeau Lascary ↓ · K. Doumbia ↑

Substitution 2

L. Michal ↓ · M. Colin ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

N. Mbala ↓ · A. Toure ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

U. Mboula ↓ · B. Traore ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

83'

⇄

L. Tousart ↓ · R. Del Castillo ↑

Substitution 3

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Stade Brestois 29 won 1–0 away at Metz. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.52 to 0.87. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 6, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Ajorque (69'). Daouda Guindo was sent off in the 22' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.69 units (Brier 0.165).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.94	—	56%	Cashed	+0.94	Cashed
Away Win	2.18	—	54%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
BTTS No	2.14	—	51%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.03	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.76	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.62	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.75	—	30%	Cashed	+2.75	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.33	—	80%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.55	—	54%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.35	—	76%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.55	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.50	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.64	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.69u	−10% ROI