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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Lille — Nantes

Lille vs Nantes 1:0: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Lille
Lille
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Sun 01 Mar · 16:15
1:0
Full-time
Nantes
Nantes
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee T. Leonard
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 47% · book 2.11 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 49% · book 2.01 ✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 53% · book 1.84 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.63 – 0.19
Δ +0.44
Possession
73% – 27%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.51 — +4.8% better than the market.

Lille enter this Ligue 1 clash with clear home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a significant quality edge over Nantes. Their strong defensive setup should contain Nantes' limited offensive threat, while Lille's sharper attack is likely to exploit gaps in the visitors' backline. The pace of the game may lean towards a controlled tempo, favoring Lille's compact block and set-piece threat.

  • Home side's form and quality advantage
  • Defensive solidity vs weaker away offense
  • Moderate tempo suits Lille's style

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.51 ✓ Cashed
AI 69% Implied 66% +0.51u
+51%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LIL 4-2-3-1 · NAN 5-3-2
LIL · 4-2-3-1 5-3-2 · NAN 1 Ozer 22 Santos 18 Mbemba 3 Ngoy ⚽ 24 Verdonk 17 Mukau 21 Andre 27 Correia 10 Haraldsson 28 Perrin 7 Fernandez-Pardo 1 Lopes 18 Centonze 6 Awaziem 2 Youssef 3 Cozza 27 Machado 8 Lepenant 21 Kaba 66 Leroux 37 Ganago 19 El Arabi
Subs used · LIL
63' Edjouma ↑ · Correia ↓
63' Meunier ↑ · Santos ↓
74' Giroud ↑ · Perrin ↓
74' Diaoune ↑ · Haraldsson ↓
81' Bentaleb ↑ · Mukau ↓
Subs used · NAN
62' Coquelin ↑ · Leroux ↓
63' Abline ↑ · El Arabi ↓
63' Tabibou ↑ · Machado ↓
75' Cabella ↑ · Ganago ↓
81' Sissoko ↑ · Kaba ↓

Statistics

LIL 1 – 0 NAN
73%
Possession (%)
27%
0.63
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.19
9
Total Shots
3
3
Shots on Target
1
2
Shots off Target
1
7
Shots Inside Box
1
4
Corner Kicks
1
3
Offsides
2
11
Fouls
15
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
62%
3
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

15 · 1 – 0
17'
▮
Mohamed Kaba
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
62'
⇄
F. Coquelin ↓ · L. Leroux ↑
Substitution 1
N. Edjouma ↓ · F. Correia ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
63'
T. Meunier ↓ · T. Santos ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
63'
⇄
M. Abline ↓ · Y. El Arabi ↑
Substitution 2
63'
⇄
D. Tabibou ↓ · D. Machado ↑
Substitution 3
O. Giroud ↓ · G. Perrin ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
S. Diaoune ↓ · H. Haraldsson ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
75'
⇄
R. Cabella ↓ · I. Ganago ↑
Substitution 4
Olivier Giroud
Yellow Card
▮
76'
Benjamin André
Yellow Card
▮
76'
N. Bentaleb ↓ · N. Mukau ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
81'
⇄
I. Sissoko ↓ · M. Kaba ↑
Substitution 5
N. Ngoy
Assist · T. Meunier · 1–0
⚽
90'
Nathan Ngoy
Yellow Card
▮
90+5'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Lille beat Nantes 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 73% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 9 shots to 3, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Ngoy (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.55 units (Brier 0.163).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.11 — 47% Cashed +1.11 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.01 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.84 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.87 — 51% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.80 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.51 — 69% Cashed +0.51 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.13 — 90% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.42 — 69% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.01 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.16 — 69% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 — 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.20 — 23% Cashed +3.20 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 — 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.62 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 14.00 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 7.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.25 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.55u −15% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
LIL – NAN @ 1.51
+4.8%
Edge
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