Match Metz vs Auxerre February 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.01 — +14.3% better than the market.

Metz holds a slight quality edge and a home defensive solidity that could frustrate Auxerre. Despite recent struggles, Metz’s compact block and home momentum might limit goals in this Ligue 1 clash. Auxerre’s attack faces a tough defensive test, and both sides have shown low scoring form lately, hinting at a cautious pace.

Metz’s defensive resilience at home
Auxerre’s attack challenged by strong defense
Recent low-scoring trends suggest a tight game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.01 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MET 4-2-3-1 · AUX 4-3-3

MET · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · AUX

30 Diallo

Subs used · MET

46'

Toure ↑ ·

Deminguet ↓

62'

Michal ↑ ·

Ballo-Toure ↓

63'

Colin ↑ ·

Kouao ↓

70'

Kvilitaia ↑ ·

Hein ↓

82'

Mbala ↑ ·

Abuashvili ↓

Subs used · AUX

72'

Casimir ↑ ·

Mara ↓

72'

Coulibaly ↑ ·

Faivre ↓

82'

Senaya ↑ ·

Sy ↓

82'

Diousse ↑ ·

Ahamada ↓

90+1'

Zaddy ↑ ·

Danois ↓

📊 Statistics

MET 1 – 3 AUX

62%

Possession (%)

38%

0.93

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.90

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 1 – 3

⚽

S. Sane

Own goal · 0–1

Koffi Kouao

Yellow Card

▮

Half-time · 0 – 1

A. Toure ↓ · J. Deminguet ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

L. Michal ↓ · F. Ballo-Toure ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

M. Colin ↓ · K. Kouao ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

63'

Lucas Michal

Yellow Card

▮

65'

G. Kvilitaia ↓ · G. Hein ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

70'

72'

⇄

J. Casimir ↓ · S. Mara ↑

Substitution 1

72'

⇄

L. Coulibaly ↓ · R. Faivre ↑

Substitution 2

76'

⚽

U. Mboula

Own goal · 0–2

78'

▮

Josué Casimir

Yellow Card

N. Mbala ↓ · G. Abuashvili ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

⇄

M. Senaya ↓ · L. Sy ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

A. Diousse ↓ · N. Ahamada ↑

Substitution 4

85'

▮

Assane Dioussé

Yellow Card

89'

⚽

K. Danois

Assist · L. Sinayoko · 0–3

N. Mbala

Assist · A. Toure · 1–3

⚽

90'

90+1'

▮

Lassine Sinayoko

Yellow Card

90+1'

⇄

Y. Zaddy ↓ · K. Danois ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Auxerre won 3–1 away at Metz. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.90 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: S. Sane (4'), U. Mboula (76'), K. Danois (89'), N. Mbala (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.11 units (Brier 0.314).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.01	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.72	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.04	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.30	—	36%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	43%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.90	—	28%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Home Win	3.02	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.20	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.48	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.05	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.42	—	63%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.44	—	58%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Away Win	2.84	—	28%	Cashed	+1.84	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.26	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.10	—	87%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.20	—	18%	Cashed	+3.20	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.11u	+1% ROI