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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Metz — Auxerre

Metz vs Auxerre 1:3: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Metz
Metz
Home · last 5 L D L L D
Kick-off
Sun 15 Feb · 16:15
1:3
Full-time
Auxerre
Auxerre
D L W W W Away · last 5
Stade Saint-Symphorien · Metz Referee Marc Bollengier, France
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 2.01 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 64% · book 1.72 ✗
Miss
AH Home 0
AH Home 0
AI 42% · book 2.04 ✗
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
0.93 – 0.90
Δ +0.03
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.01 — +14.3% better than the market.

Metz holds a slight quality edge and a home defensive solidity that could frustrate Auxerre. Despite recent struggles, Metz’s compact block and home momentum might limit goals in this Ligue 1 clash. Auxerre’s attack faces a tough defensive test, and both sides have shown low scoring form lately, hinting at a cautious pace.

  • Metz’s defensive resilience at home
  • Auxerre’s attack challenged by strong defense
  • Recent low-scoring trends suggest a tight game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.01 ✗ Lost
AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MET 4-2-3-1 · AUX 4-3-3
MET · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · AUX 1 Fischer 39 Kouao 38 Sané 4 Mboula 97 Ballo-Touré 33 Munongo 20 Deminguet 9 Abuashvili 10 Hein 7 Tsitaishvili 30 Diallo 16 Léon 27 Sy 20 Diomandé 24 Okoh 92 Akpa 8 Ahamada 42 Owusu 5 Danois ⚽ 28 Faivre 9 Mara 10 Sinayoko
Subs used · MET
46' Toure ↑ · Deminguet ↓
62' Michal ↑ · Ballo-Toure ↓
63' Colin ↑ · Kouao ↓
70' Kvilitaia ↑ · Hein ↓
82' Mbala ↑ · Abuashvili ↓
Subs used · AUX
72' Casimir ↑ · Mara ↓
72' Coulibaly ↑ · Faivre ↓
82' Senaya ↑ · Sy ↓
82' Diousse ↑ · Ahamada ↓
90+1' Zaddy ↑ · Danois ↓

Statistics

MET 1 – 3 AUX
62%
Possession (%)
38%
0.93
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.90
13
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Shots off Target
5
6
Shots Inside Box
6
4
Corner Kicks
3
0
Offsides
3
13
Fouls
12
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

19 · 1 – 3
4'
⚽
S. Sane
Own goal · 0–1
Koffi Kouao
Yellow Card
▮
6'
Half-time · 0 – 1
A. Toure ↓ · J. Deminguet ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
L. Michal ↓ · F. Ballo-Toure ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
62'
M. Colin ↓ · K. Kouao ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
63'
Lucas Michal
Yellow Card
▮
65'
G. Kvilitaia ↓ · G. Hein ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
70'
72'
⇄
J. Casimir ↓ · S. Mara ↑
Substitution 1
72'
⇄
L. Coulibaly ↓ · R. Faivre ↑
Substitution 2
76'
⚽
U. Mboula
Own goal · 0–2
78'
▮
Josué Casimir
Yellow Card
N. Mbala ↓ · G. Abuashvili ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
82'
82'
⇄
M. Senaya ↓ · L. Sy ↑
Substitution 3
82'
⇄
A. Diousse ↓ · N. Ahamada ↑
Substitution 4
85'
▮
Assane Dioussé
Yellow Card
89'
⚽
K. Danois
Assist · L. Sinayoko · 0–3
N. Mbala
Assist · A. Toure · 1–3
⚽
90'
90+1'
▮
Lassine Sinayoko
Yellow Card
90+1'
⇄
Y. Zaddy ↓ · K. Danois ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Auxerre won 3–1 away at Metz. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.90 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: S. Sane (4'), U. Mboula (76'), K. Danois (89'), N. Mbala (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.11 units (Brier 0.314).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.01 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.72 — 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.04 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.30 — 36% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.91 — 43% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.90 — 28% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
Home Win 3.02 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.20 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.48 — 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.05 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.42 — 63% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.44 — 58% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Away Win 2.84 — 28% Cashed +1.84 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.50 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.26 — 82% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.10 — 87% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.20 — 18% Cashed +3.20 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +0.11u +1% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
MET – AUX @ 2.01
+14.3%
Edge
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