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Home France Ligue 1 Marseille — Nantes

Predictions Marseille vs Nantes January 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Marseille
Marseille
Home · last 5 L D L W W
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 14:00
0:2
Full-time
Nantes
Nantes
D L L W L Away · last 5
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille Referee Marc Bollengier, France
Home Win · MAR
79%
Best 1.25
Draw
16%
Best 6.40
Away Win · NAN
6%
Best 11.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.80
Fair odds
6.33
book 6.80 · +7.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 16% · EV +7.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (79%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 15.8%
Odds 6.80
Show model details
Implied probability 14.7%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 78.7%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 5.5%
Odds 13.40
Show model details
Implied probability 7.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 60.7%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 38.9%
Odds 2.67
Show model details
Implied probability 37.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 39.3%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 17.8%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.9%
Odds 20.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.1%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 45.4%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 78.7%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 5.5%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.5%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 21.3%
Odds 4.42
Show model details
Implied probability 22.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
MAR – NAN @ 6.80
+7.5%
Edge
Forecast →