Match Marseille vs Nantes January 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Marseille enter this Ligue 1 clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid attacking edge against Nantes' defense. Their recent form shows resilience and goal threat, while Nantes struggle with confidence and defensive solidity. The home side's pressing and compact block should limit Nantes' chances, suggesting a controlled tempo with a likely low concession count.

Home attacking pressure vs away defensive frailty
Superior recent form and home comfort
Moderate pace expected, favoring Marseille's structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

MAR 3-4-2-1 · NAN 5-4-1

MAR · 3-4-2-1 5-4-1 · NAN

97 Aubameyang

Subs used · MAR

32'

Nadir ↑ ·

Paixao ↓

46'

Murillo ↑ ·

Medina ↓

61'

O'Riley ↑ ·

Aubameyang ↓

73'

J. Traore ↑ ·

Egan-Riley ↓

73'

Gouiri ↑ ·

Greenwood ↓

Subs used · NAN

46'

Doucoure ↑ ·

Centonze ↓

58'

Cabella ↑ ·

Tabibou ↓

58'

Leroux ↑ ·

Coquelin ↓

63'

Lepenant ↑ ·

Mwanga ↓

82'

Guirassy ↑ ·

El Arabi ↓

📊 Statistics

MAR 0 – 2 NAN

55%

Possession (%)

45%

0.78

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.63

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 0 – 2

Arthur Vermeeren

Red Card

▮

26'

31'

⚽

F. Centonze

0–1

B. Nadir ↓ · I. Paixao ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

32'

33'

▮

Junior Mwanga

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 1

M. Murillo ↓ · F. Medina ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

⇄

S. Doucoure ↓ · F. Centonze ↑

Substitution 1

51'

▮

Dehmaine Tabibou

Yellow Card

Bilal Nadir

Yellow Card

▮

54'

Bilal Nadir

Yellow Card

▮

56'

Bilal Nadir

Red Card

▮

56'

58'

⇄

R. Cabella ↓ · D. Tabibou ↑

Substitution 2

58'

⇄

L. Leroux ↓ · F. Coquelin ↑

Substitution 3

M. O'Riley ↓ · P. Aubameyang ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

63'

⇄

J. Lepenant ↓ · J. Mwanga ↑

Substitution 4

H. J. Traore ↓ · C. Egan-Riley ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

73'

A. Gouiri ↓ · M. Greenwood ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

73'

82'

⇄

B. Guirassy ↓ · Y. El Arabi ↑

Substitution 5

88'

⚽

R. Cabella (P)

Penalty · 0–2

90+4'

▮

Bahereba Guirassy

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Nantes won 2–0 away at Marseille. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.63 to 0.78. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Centonze (31'), R. Cabella (88'). Arthur Vermeeren was sent off in the 26' minute. Bilal Nadir was sent off in the 56' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +19.23 units (Brier 0.359).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.72	—	61%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.67	—	39%	Cashed	+1.67	Cashed
BTTS No	1.83	—	55%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.07	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.30	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.80	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.06	—	95%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.27	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.50	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.05	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.00	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	20.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.16	—	82%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Double Chance X2	4.42	—	21%	Cashed	+3.42	Cashed
Away Win	13.40	—	5%	Cashed	+12.40	Cashed
AH Away 0	10.00	—	5%	Cashed	+9.00	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+19.23u	+113% ROI