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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Marseille — Nantes

Marseille vs Nantes 0:2: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Marseille
Marseille
Home · last 5 L D L W W
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 14:00
0:2
Full-time
Nantes
Nantes
D L L W L Away · last 5
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille Referee Marc Bollengier, France
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 61% · book 1.72 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 39% · book 2.67 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.83 ✓
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
0.78 – 3.63
Δ −2.85
Possession
55% – 45%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 6.80 — +7.5% better than the market.

Marseille enter this Ligue 1 clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid attacking edge against Nantes' defense. Their recent form shows resilience and goal threat, while Nantes struggle with confidence and defensive solidity. The home side's pressing and compact block should limit Nantes' chances, suggesting a controlled tempo with a likely low concession count.

  • Home attacking pressure vs away defensive frailty
  • Superior recent form and home comfort
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring Marseille's structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Draw
Draw @ 6.80 ✗ Lost
AI 16% Implied 15% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MAR 3-4-2-1 · NAN 5-4-1
MAR · 3-4-2-1 5-4-1 · NAN 1 Rulli 28 Pavard 4 Egan-Riley 32 Medina 22 Weah 18 Vermeeren 23 Højbjerg 33 Palmieri 10 Greenwood 14 Paixão 97 Aubameyang 1 Lopes 18 Centonze ⚽ 98 Amian 78 Tati 3 Cozza 27 Machado 17 Tabibou 13 Coquelin 80 Mwanga 10 Abline 19 Arabi
Subs used · MAR
32' Nadir ↑ · Paixao ↓
46' Murillo ↑ · Medina ↓
61' O'Riley ↑ · Aubameyang ↓
73' J. Traore ↑ · Egan-Riley ↓
73' Gouiri ↑ · Greenwood ↓
Subs used · NAN
46' Doucoure ↑ · Centonze ↓
58' Cabella ↑ · Tabibou ↓
58' Leroux ↑ · Coquelin ↓
63' Lepenant ↑ · Mwanga ↓
82' Guirassy ↑ · El Arabi ↓

Statistics

MAR 0 – 2 NAN
55%
Possession (%)
45%
0.78
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
3.63
11
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Target
9
4
Shots off Target
2
6
Shots Inside Box
12
6
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
4
17
Fouls
20
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
2
Yellow Cards
3
7
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

19 · 0 – 2
Arthur Vermeeren
Red Card
▮
26'
31'
⚽
F. Centonze
0–1
B. Nadir ↓ · I. Paixao ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
32'
33'
▮
Junior Mwanga
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 1
M. Murillo ↓ · F. Medina ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
S. Doucoure ↓ · F. Centonze ↑
Substitution 1
51'
▮
Dehmaine Tabibou
Yellow Card
Bilal Nadir
Yellow Card
▮
54'
Bilal Nadir
Yellow Card
▮
56'
Bilal Nadir
Red Card
▮
56'
58'
⇄
R. Cabella ↓ · D. Tabibou ↑
Substitution 2
58'
⇄
L. Leroux ↓ · F. Coquelin ↑
Substitution 3
M. O'Riley ↓ · P. Aubameyang ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
61'
63'
⇄
J. Lepenant ↓ · J. Mwanga ↑
Substitution 4
H. J. Traore ↓ · C. Egan-Riley ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
73'
A. Gouiri ↓ · M. Greenwood ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
73'
82'
⇄
B. Guirassy ↓ · Y. El Arabi ↑
Substitution 5
88'
⚽
R. Cabella (P)
Penalty · 0–2
90+4'
▮
Bahereba Guirassy
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Nantes won 2–0 away at Marseille. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.63 to 0.78. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Centonze (31'), R. Cabella (88'). Arthur Vermeeren was sent off in the 26' minute. Bilal Nadir was sent off in the 56' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +19.23 units (Brier 0.359).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.72 — 61% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.67 — 39% Cashed +1.67 Cashed
BTTS No 1.83 — 55% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.07 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.30 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.80 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.06 — 95% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.27 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.50 — 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.05 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.00 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 20.00 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 — 95% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.16 — 82% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Double Chance X2 4.42 — 21% Cashed +3.42 Cashed
Away Win 13.40 — 5% Cashed +12.40 Cashed
AH Away 0 10.00 — 5% Cashed +9.00 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +19.23u +113% ROI
Value pick of the night · Draw
MAR – NAN @ 6.80
+7.5%
Edge
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