Lille vs Paris FC 4:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.68 — +8.7% better than the market.

Lille holds a clear quality edge over Paris FC, backed by stronger offensive firepower and a solid defensive setup. Their recent home momentum, combined with a pressing edge in attack against Paris FC's defense, suggests Lille can control the game tempo. Despite some inconsistency in form, Lille's ability to create chances and capitalize at home is a key factor.

Home side's offensive strength vs away defense
Better recent form and home confidence
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.68 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 60% +0.68u

+68%

ROI on stake

Lineups

LIL 4-4-2 · PAR 4-3-3

LIL · 4-4-2 4-3-3 · PAR

9 Giroud ⚽

Subs used · LIL

61'

Haraldsson ↑ ·

Igamane ↓

73'

Mukau ↑ ·

Bentaleb ↓

73'

Broholm ↑ ·

Sahraoui ↓

86'

Ngoy ↑ ·

Mandi ↓

86'

Mbappe ↑ ·

Giroud ↓

Subs used · PAR

60'

Kolodziejczak ↑ ·

Chergui ↓

60'

Krasso ↑ ·

Geubbels ↓

60'

Simon ↑ ·

Cafaro ↓

74'

Gory ↑ ·

Lees-Melou ↓

83'

Doucet ↑ ·

Marchetti ↓

Statistics

LIL 4 – 2 PAR

52%

Possession (%)

48%

4.00

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.36

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 4 – 2

11'

⚽

W. Geubbels

0–1

Hamza Igamane

Yellow Card

▮

29'

O. Giroud

Assist · R. Perraud · 1–1

⚽

40'

Half-time · 1 – 1

60'

⇄

T. Kolodziejczak ↓ · S. Chergui ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

J. Krasso ↓ · W. Geubbels ↑

Substitution 2

60'

⇄

M. Simon ↓ · M. Cafaro ↑

Substitution 3

H. Haraldsson ↓ · H. Igamane ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

66'

▮

Hamari Traoré

Yellow Card

N. Mukau ↓ · N. Bentaleb ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

M. Broholm ↓ · O. Sahraoui ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

74'

⇄

A. Gory ↓ · P. Lees-Melou ↑

Substitution 4

O. Giroud (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

77'

A. Mandi

3–1

⚽

80'

83'

⇄

L. Doucet ↓ · V. Marchetti ↑

Substitution 5

84'

⚽

L. Doucet

Assist · J. Krasso · 3–2

N. Ngoy ↓ · A. Mandi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

E. Mbappe ↓ · O. Giroud ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

M. Broholm (P)

Penalty · 4–2

⚽

90'

90+4'

▮

Lohann Doucet

Yellow Card

Full-time · 4 – 2

Match recap

Lille beat Paris FC 4–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 4.00 to 1.36. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 6, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: W. Geubbels (11'), O. Giroud (40'), O. Giroud (77'), A. Mandi (80'), L. Doucet (84'), M. Broholm (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.34 units (Brier 0.118).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.68	—	65%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.76	—	38%	Cashed	+1.76	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.73	—	60%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.75	—	57%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
BTTS No	2.15	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.28	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.41	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.20	—	87%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.48	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.26	—	65%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	82%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.36	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.75	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	16.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.12	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.34u	−26% ROI

Lille vs Paris FC 4:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled