Match Marseille vs Le Havre October 18, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Preview & Verdict

Marseille is expected to dominate against Le Havre, with a strong home advantage and superior overall strength. The likelihood of a home win is high, with an estimated probability of 75.32% against odds of 1.36. Goals are anticipated, with a 58.22% chance of over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.68. Both teams scoring is slightly favored, with a 48.38% probability at odds of 2.09. A draw is less likely, with a 17.63% chance, while an away win is even less probable at 7.05%.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

MAR 4-2-3-1 · HAV 4-4-2

MAR · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · HAV

97 Aubameyang

Subs used · MAR

65'

Murillo ↑ ·

Emerson ↓

65'

Nadir ↑ ·

O'Riley ↓

65'

Vaz ↑ ·

Gomes ↓

71'

Weah ↑ ·

Paixao ↓

79'

Bakola ↑ ·

Greenwood ↓

Subs used · HAV

38'

Youte Kinkoue ↑ ·

Samatta ↓

65'

Ebonog ↑ ·

Ndiaye ↓

65'

Toure ↑ ·

Doucoure ↓

84'

Namli ↑ ·

Seko ↓

84'

Kyeremeh ↑ ·

Kechta ↓

📊 Statistics

MAR 6 – 2 HAV

74%

Possession (%)

26%

4.11

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.49

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

94%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

23 · 6 – 2

24'

⚽

Y. Kechta

Assist · I. Soumare · 0–1

34'

▮

Gautier Lloris

Red Card

M. Greenwood (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

35'

38'

⇄

E. Youte Kinkoue ↓ · A. Samatta ↑

Substitution 1

45+4'

▮

Yassine Kechta

Yellow Card

45+4'

▮

Yanis Zouaoui

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

M. Murillo ↓ · Emerson ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

B. Nadir ↓ · M. O'Riley ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

R. Vaz ↓ · A. Gomes ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

⇄

S. Ebonog ↓ · R. Ndiaye ↑

Substitution 2

65'

⇄

A. Toure ↓ · F. Doucoure ↑

Substitution 3

M. Greenwood

Assist · I. Paixao · 2–1

⚽

67'

T. Weah ↓ · I. Paixao ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

71'

M. Greenwood

Assist · R. Vaz · 3–1

⚽

72'

M. Greenwood

Assist · B. Pavard · 4–1

⚽

76'

Bilal Nadir

Yellow Card

▮

78'

D. Bakola ↓ · M. Greenwood ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

84'

⇄

Y. Namli ↓ · A. Seko ↑

Substitution 4

84'

⇄

G. Kyeremeh ↓ · Y. Kechta ↑

Substitution 5

R. Vaz

Assist · P. Aubameyang · 5–1

⚽

88'

Amir Murillo

Yellow Card

▮

90'

⚽

A. Toure

Assist · Y. Namli · 5–2

M. Murillo

Assist · B. Nadir · 6–2

⚽

90'

Full-time · 6 – 2

Match recap

Marseille beat Le Havre 6–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 74% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 94% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 4.11 to 0.49. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 8, 11 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 6 from 4.11 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Y. Kechta (24'), M. Greenwood (35'), M. Greenwood (67'), M. Greenwood (72'), M. Greenwood (76'), R. Vaz (88'), A. Toure (90'), M. Murillo (90'). Gautier Lloris was sent off in the 34' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.79 units (Brier 0.118).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Draw	5.87	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.09	—	93%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Home Win	1.36	—	75%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.09	—	48%	Cashed	+1.09	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.68	—	58%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.39	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	10.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.83	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	96%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 0.5	17.50	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.21	—	81%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.00	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.64	—	36%	Cashed	+1.64	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.54	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.56	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.10	—	75%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
AH Away 0	7.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.79u	−28% ROI