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Home › England › Premier League › Newcastle — Leeds

Newcastle vs Leeds 4:3: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Wed 07 Jan · 20:15
4:3
Full-time
Leeds
Leeds
D W D W L Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle Referee Michael Salisbury, England
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 63% · book 1.73 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.07 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 52% · book 1.88 ✓
Total goals
7
4 · 3
xG (open play)
2.64 – 2.26
Δ +0.38
Possession
63% – 37%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.73 — +9.5% better than the market.

Newcastle arrives at St. James' Park with a clear quality edge over Leeds, backed by stronger defensive solidity and a sharper attacking threat. Their recent home form shows momentum, while Leeds' string of draws hints at resilience but limited cutting edge. Expect Newcastle's compact block and set-piece threat to challenge Leeds' defense, with a moderate pace suggested by balanced goal odds.

  • Home defensive strength vs away attack
  • Newcastle's recent winning momentum
  • Leeds' stubborn but less prolific offense

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.73 ✓ Cashed
AI 63% Implied 58% +0.73u
+73%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · LEE 3-1-4-2
NEW · 4-3-3 3-1-4-2 · LEE 1 Pope 67 Miley 12 Thiaw 5 Schär 3 Hall 39 Guimarães ⚽ 8 Tonali 7 Joelinton ⚽ 11 Barnes ⚽ 27 Woltemade 10 Gordon 1 Perri 6 Rodon 15 Bijol 5 Struijk 4 Ampadu 24 Justin 18 Stach 44 Gruev 3 Gudmundsson 9 Calvert-Lewin ⚽ 11 Aaronson ⚽
Subs used · NEW
46' Botman ↑ · Thiaw ↓
46' Livramento ↑ · Tonali ↓
75' Wissa ↑ · Woltemade ↓
76' Ramsey ↑ · Schar ↓
81' Murphy ↑ · Gordon ↓
Subs used · LEE
80' Okafor ↑ · Stach ↓
87' Nmecha ↑ · Calvert-Lewin ↓
90+7' Tanaka ↑ · Gruev ↓
90+7' Bornauw ↑ · Rodon ↓
90+7' Gnonto ↑ · Aaronson ↓

Statistics

NEW 4 – 3 LEE
63%
Possession (%)
37%
2.64
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.26
18
Total Shots
14
8
Shots on Target
6
6
Shots off Target
5
15
Shots Inside Box
12
8
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
0
11
Fouls
10
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
3
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

22 · 4 – 3
Malick Thiaw
Yellow Card
▮
7'
22'
▮
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Yellow Card
32'
⚽
B. Aaronson
Assist · D. Calvert-Lewin · 0–1
H. Barnes
Assist · N. Woltemade · 1–1
⚽
36'
45'
⚽
D. Calvert-Lewin (P)
Penalty · 1–2
Half-time · 1 – 2
S. Botman ↓ · M. Thiaw ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
V. Livramento ↓ · S. Tonali ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
Anthony Gordon
Yellow Card
▮
45+3'
Joelinton
Yellow Card
▮
45+6'
Joelinton
Assist · Bruno Guimaraes · 2–2
⚽
54'
Y. Wissa ↓ · N. Woltemade ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
J. Ramsey ↓ · F. Schar ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
79'
⚽
B. Aaronson
Assist · I. Gruev · 2–3
80'
⇄
N. Okafor ↓ · A. Stach ↑
Substitution 1
J. Murphy ↓ · A. Gordon ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
87'
⇄
L. Nmecha ↓ · D. Calvert-Lewin ↑
Substitution 2
Bruno Guimaraes (P)
Penalty · 3–3
⚽
90'
H. Barnes
Assist · S. Botman · 4–3
⚽
90'
90+7'
⇄
A. Tanaka ↓ · I. Gruev ↑
Substitution 3
90+7'
⇄
S. Bornauw ↓ · J. Rodon ↑
Substitution 4
90+7'
⇄
W. Gnonto ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑
Substitution 5
90+10'
▮
Ethan Ampadu
Yellow Card
Full-time · 4 – 3

Match recap

Newcastle beat Leeds 4–3 at home. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 14, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: B. Aaronson (32'), H. Barnes (36'), D. Calvert-Lewin (45'), Joelinton (54'), B. Aaronson (79'), Bruno Guimaraes (90'), H. Barnes (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.66 units (Brier 0.149).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.73 — 63% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.07 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.88 — 52% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
BTTS No 2.03 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.83 — 52% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.26 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.19 — 87% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.42 — 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.10 — 30% Cashed +2.10 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.28 — 63% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.20 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 — 93% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 — 76% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Draw 4.00 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.00 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.50 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.89 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.66u −22% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
NEW – LEE @ 1.73
+9.5%
Edge
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