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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football England Premier League Newcastle — Leeds

Match Newcastle vs Leeds January 7, 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Wed 07 Jan · 20:15
4:3
Full-time
Leeds
Leeds
D W D W L Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle Referee Michael Salisbury, England
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 63% · book 1.73
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.07
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 52% · book 1.88
Total goals
7
4 · 3
xG (open play)
2.64 – 2.26
Δ +0.38
Possession
63% – 37%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Newcastle arrives at St. James' Park with a clear quality edge over Leeds, backed by stronger defensive solidity and a sharper attacking threat. Their recent home form shows momentum, while Leeds' string of draws hints at resilience but limited cutting edge. Expect Newcastle's compact block and set-piece threat to challenge Leeds' defense, with a moderate pace suggested by balanced goal odds.

  • Home defensive strength vs away attack
  • Newcastle's recent winning momentum
  • Leeds' stubborn but less prolific offense

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · LEE 3-1-4-2
Subs used · NEW
46' Botman ↑ · Thiaw
46' Livramento ↑ · Tonali
75' Wissa ↑ · Woltemade
76' Ramsey ↑ · Schar
81' Murphy ↑ · Gordon
Subs used · LEE
80' Okafor ↑ · Stach
87' Nmecha ↑ · Calvert-Lewin
90+7' Tanaka ↑ · Gruev
90+7' Bornauw ↑ · Rodon
90+7' Gnonto ↑ · Aaronson

📊 Statistics

NEW 43 LEE
63%
Possession (%)
37%
2.64
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.26
18
Total Shots
14
8
Shots on Target
6
6
Shots off Target
5
15
Shots Inside Box
12
8
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
0
11
Fouls
10
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
3
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

22 · 4 – 3
Malick Thiaw
Yellow Card
7'
22'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Yellow Card
32'
B. Aaronson
Assist · D. Calvert-Lewin · 0–1
H. Barnes
Assist · N. Woltemade · 1–1
36'
45'
D. Calvert-Lewin (P)
Penalty · 1–2
Half-time · 1 – 2
S. Botman ↓ · M. Thiaw ↑
Substitution 1
46'
V. Livramento ↓ · S. Tonali ↑
Substitution 2
46'
Anthony Gordon
Yellow Card
45+3'
Joelinton
Yellow Card
45+6'
Joelinton
Assist · Bruno Guimaraes · 2–2
54'
Y. Wissa ↓ · N. Woltemade ↑
Substitution 3
75'
J. Ramsey ↓ · F. Schar ↑
Substitution 4
76'
79'
B. Aaronson
Assist · I. Gruev · 2–3
80'
N. Okafor ↓ · A. Stach ↑
Substitution 1
J. Murphy ↓ · A. Gordon ↑
Substitution 5
81'
87'
L. Nmecha ↓ · D. Calvert-Lewin ↑
Substitution 2
Bruno Guimaraes (P)
Penalty · 3–3
90'
H. Barnes
Assist · S. Botman · 4–3
90'
90+7'
A. Tanaka ↓ · I. Gruev ↑
Substitution 3
90+7'
S. Bornauw ↓ · J. Rodon ↑
Substitution 4
90+7'
W. Gnonto ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑
Substitution 5
90+10'
Ethan Ampadu
Yellow Card
Full-time · 4 – 3

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.73 63% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.07 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.88 52% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
BTTS No 2.03 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.83 52% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.26 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.19 87% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.42 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.10 30% Cashed +2.10 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.28 63% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.20 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 93% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 76% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Draw 4.00 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.00 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.50 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.89 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −3.66u −22% ROI