Match Atalanta vs Juventus April 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.91 — +10.0% better than the market.

Juventus arrive with a clear quality edge and stronger recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Atalanta's defensive solidity at home is notable, but Juventus' potent attack challenges their backline, hinting at a tactical battle. The match pace looks balanced with a slight lean towards goals, supported by both sides' offensive capabilities and recent scoring trends.

Juventus' superior overall strength and form advantage
Atalanta's home defensive resilience
Balanced tempo favoring goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.91 ✗ Lost

AI 58% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · JUV 3-4-2-1

ATA · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · JUV

90 Krstović

Subs used · ATA

55'

Raspadori ↑ ·

Zalewski ↓

72'

Ahanor ↑ ·

Kolasinac ↓

72'

Pasalic ↑ ·

De Roon ↓

72'

Scamacca ↑ ·

Krstovic ↓

86'

Bellanova ↑ ·

Zappacosta ↓

Subs used · JUV

58'

David ↑ ·

Yildiz ↓

71'

Gatti ↑ ·

Holm ↓

71'

Koopmeiners ↑ ·

Thuram ↓

79'

Miretti ↑ ·

Conceicao ↓

79'

Kostic ↑ ·

Cambiaso ↓

📊 Statistics

ATA 0 – 1 JUV

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.82

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.63

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

48'

⚽

J. Boga

0–1

G. Raspadori ↓ · N. Zalewski ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

58'

⇄

J. David ↓ · K. Yildiz ↑

Substitution 1

Charles De Ketelaere

Yellow Card

▮

66'

69'

▮

Khéphren Thuram

Yellow Card

71'

⇄

F. Gatti ↓ · E. Holm ↑

Substitution 2

71'

⇄

T. Koopmeiners ↓ · K. Thuram ↑

Substitution 3

H. Ahanor ↓ · S. Kolasinac ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

M. Pasalic ↓ · M. De Roon ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

G. Scamacca ↓ · N. Krstovic ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

72'

73'

▮

Andrea Cambiaso

Yellow Card

79'

⇄

F. Miretti ↓ · F. Conceicao ↑

Substitution 4

79'

⇄

F. Kostic ↓ · A. Cambiaso ↑

Substitution 5

84'

▮

Filip Kostić

Yellow Card

R. Bellanova ↓ · D. Zappacosta ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Juventus won 1–0 away at Atalanta. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.82 to 0.63. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 7, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 13 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Boga (48').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.71 units (Brier 0.226).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.91	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.36	—	51%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.25	—	41%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.07	—	42%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.70	—	51%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.66	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.34	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.20	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.39	—	77%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	64%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.50	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.04	—	20%	Cashed	+3.04	Cashed
Home Win	3.30	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.50	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.71u	−4% ROI