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Home › Italy › Serie A › AS Roma — Lecce

AS Roma vs Lecce 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AS Roma
AS Roma
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 22 Mar · 17:00
1:0
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
D W L W W Away · last 5
Referee Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 61% · book 1.83 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 63% · book 1.62 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 37% · book 2.38 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.84 – 1.08
Δ −0.24
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 10.00 — +13.0% better than the market.

AS Roma holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite mixed recent form. Their strong defensive setup should limit Lecce’s attacking threat, who struggle away and face a tough challenge breaking down a compact block. Roma’s pressing edge and higher scoring potential suggest a controlled game with limited goals, aligning with the market’s lean towards under 2.5 goals.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
  • Roma’s home advantage and pressing intensity
  • Modest recent form but superior overall quality

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5
Under 0.5 @ 10.00 ✗ Lost
AI 11% Implied 10% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ROM 3-4-2-1 · LEC 4-2-3-1
ROM · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · LEC 99 Svilar 23 Mancini 5 Ndicka 22 Hermoso 2 Rensch 4 Cristante 8 Aynaoui 12 Tsimikas 61 Pisilli 7 Pellegrini 14 Malen 30 Falcone 17 Veiga 5 Siebert 44 Gabriel 25 Gallo 20 Ramadani 79 Ngom 50 Pierotti 16 Gandelman 19 Banda 9 Štulić
Subs used · ROM
46' Ghilardi ↑ · Mancini ↓
51' Vaz ↑ · El Aynaoui ↓
75' Arena ↑ · Malen ↓
75' Angelino ↑ · Tsimikas ↓
80' Venturino ↑ · Pellegrini ↓
Subs used · LEC
61' Fofana ↑ · Gandelman ↓
61' Cheddira ↑ · Stulic ↓
67' Ndri ↑ · Banda ↓
85' J. Helgason ↑ · Pierotti ↓
86' Sala ↑ · Ramadani ↓

Statistics

ROM 1 – 0 LEC
67%
Possession (%)
33%
0.84
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.08
14
Total Shots
8
2
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
4
12
Shots Inside Box
6
10
Corner Kicks
2
5
Offsides
0
14
Fouls
17
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
66%
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

15 · 1 – 0
Half-time · 0 – 0
D. Ghilardi ↓ · G. Mancini ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
R. Vaz ↓ · N. El Aynaoui ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
51'
R. Vaz
Assist · M. Hermoso · 1–0
⚽
57'
61'
⇄
S. Fofana ↓ · O. Gandelman ↑
Substitution 1
61'
⇄
W. Cheddira ↓ · N. Stulic ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⇄
K. Ndri ↓ · L. Banda ↑
Substitution 3
A. Arena ↓ · D. Malen ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
Angelino ↓ · K. Tsimikas ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
Angeliño
Yellow Card
▮
77'
L. Venturino ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
81'
▮
Santiago Pierotti
Yellow Card
85'
⇄
T. J. Helgason ↓ · S. Pierotti ↑
Substitution 4
86'
⇄
A. Sala ↓ · Y. Ramadani ↑
Substitution 5
Niccolò Pisilli
Yellow Card
▮
89'
90'
▮
Danilo Veiga
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

AS Roma beat Lecce 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 82% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 8, 2 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Vaz (57').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.98 units (Brier 0.112).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.83 — 61% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
BTTS No 1.62 — 63% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.38 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.74 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.18 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.53 — 69% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.40 — 34% Cashed +2.40 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.30 — 80% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.11 — 91% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.15 — 69% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 89% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Draw 4.23 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.38 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.95 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.02 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.98u −23% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
ROM – LEC @ 10.00
+13.0%
Edge
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