Match AS Roma vs Lecce March 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.83 — +11.1% better than the market.

AS Roma holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite mixed recent form. Their strong defensive setup should limit Lecce’s attacking threat, who struggle away and face a tough challenge breaking down a compact block. Roma’s pressing edge and higher scoring potential suggest a controlled game with limited goals, aligning with the market’s lean towards under 2.5 goals.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
Roma’s home advantage and pressing intensity
Modest recent form but superior overall quality

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.83 ✓ Cashed

AI 61% Implied 55% +0.83u

+83%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ROM 3-4-2-1 · LEC 4-2-3-1

ROM · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · LEC

14 Malen

Subs used · ROM

46'

Ghilardi ↑ ·

Mancini ↓

51'

Vaz ↑ ·

El Aynaoui ↓

75'

Arena ↑ ·

Malen ↓

75'

Angelino ↑ ·

Tsimikas ↓

80'

Venturino ↑ ·

Pellegrini ↓

Subs used · LEC

61'

Fofana ↑ ·

Gandelman ↓

61'

Cheddira ↑ ·

Stulic ↓

67'

Ndri ↑ ·

Banda ↓

85'

J. Helgason ↑ ·

Pierotti ↓

86'

Sala ↑ ·

Ramadani ↓

📊 Statistics

ROM 1 – 0 LEC

67%

Possession (%)

33%

0.84

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

66%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 0

Half-time · 0 – 0

D. Ghilardi ↓ · G. Mancini ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

R. Vaz ↓ · N. El Aynaoui ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

51'

R. Vaz

Assist · M. Hermoso · 1–0

⚽

57'

61'

⇄

S. Fofana ↓ · O. Gandelman ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

W. Cheddira ↓ · N. Stulic ↑

Substitution 2

67'

⇄

K. Ndri ↓ · L. Banda ↑

Substitution 3

A. Arena ↓ · D. Malen ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

Angelino ↓ · K. Tsimikas ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

75'

Angeliño

Yellow Card

▮

77'

L. Venturino ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

81'

▮

Santiago Pierotti

Yellow Card

85'

⇄

T. J. Helgason ↓ · S. Pierotti ↑

Substitution 4

86'

⇄

A. Sala ↓ · Y. Ramadani ↑

Substitution 5

Niccolò Pisilli

Yellow Card

▮

89'

90'

▮

Danilo Veiga

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

AS Roma beat Lecce 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 82% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 8, 2 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Vaz (57').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.98 units (Brier 0.112).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.83	—	61%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
BTTS No	1.62	—	63%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.38	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.74	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.18	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.53	—	69%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.40	—	34%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.30	—	80%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.11	—	91%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.15	—	69%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	89%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	4.23	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.38	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.95	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	8.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.02	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.98u	−23% ROI