Match Atalanta vs Napoli February 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.17 — +13.5% better than the market.

Atalanta hosts Napoli in a Serie A clash where Napoli holds a slight quality edge, but Atalanta’s home form and defensive solidity offer a pressing edge. Both teams show balanced attacking and defensive matchups, suggesting a tactical battle. Recent form favors Atalanta, who have shown resilience and sharper momentum. The odds hint at a moderately open game with a decent chance for goals, supported by both sides’ offensive capabilities.

Atalanta’s home defense is robust against Napoli’s attack.
Napoli’s slight quality advantage could test Atalanta’s compact block.
Form and momentum lean towards Atalanta’s favor.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 2.17 ✓ Cashed

AI 52% Implied 46% +1.17u

+117%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · NAP 3-4-2-1

ATA · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · NAP

90 Krstović

Subs used · ATA

46'

Samardzic ↑ ·

Sulemana ↓

57'

Bernasconi ↑ ·

Bellanova ↓

57'

Scamacca ↑ ·

Krstovic ↓

69'

Djimsiti ↑ ·

Scalvini ↓

84'

Ahanor ↑ ·

Kolasinac ↓

Subs used · NAP

62'

Politano ↑ ·

Gutierrez ↓

63'

Spinazzola ↑ ·

Mazzocchi ↓

70'

Olivera ↑ ·

Jesus ↓

70'

Giovane ↑ ·

Vergara ↓

86'

Lukaku ↑ ·

Santos ↓

📊 Statistics

ATA 2 – 1 NAP

56%

Possession (%)

44%

0.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 1

18'

⚽

S. Beukema

Assist · M. Gutierrez · 0–1

37'

▮

Juan Jesus

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 1

L. Samardzic ↓ · K. Sulemana ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

L. Bernasconi ↓ · R. Bellanova ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

57'

G. Scamacca ↓ · N. Krstovic ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

57'

M. Pasalic

Assist · N. Zalewski · 1–1

⚽

61'

62'

⇄

M. Politano ↓ · M. Gutierrez ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

L. Spinazzola ↓ · P. Mazzocchi ↑

Substitution 2

B. Djimsiti ↓ · G. Scalvini ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

69'

70'

⇄

M. Olivera ↓ · Juan Jesus ↑

Substitution 3

70'

⇄

Giovane ↓ · A. Vergara ↑

Substitution 4

Nicola Zalewski

Yellow Card

▮

77'

L. Samardzic

Assist · L. Bernasconi · 2–1

⚽

81'

H. Ahanor ↓ · S. Kolasinac ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

84'

86'

⇄

R. Lukaku ↓ · Alisson Santos ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Atalanta beat Napoli 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: S. Beukema (18'), M. Pasalic (61'), L. Samardzic (81').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.46 units (Brier 0.184).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.17	—	52%	Cashed	+1.17	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	55%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
BTTS No	2.07	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.19	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.80	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.57	—	32%	Cashed	+1.57	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.79	—	32%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
Away Win	3.17	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.57	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.41	—	60%	Cashed	+0.41	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.00	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.37	—	76%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	92%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.30	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	—	69%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.40	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.46u	−20% ROI