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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Italy Serie A Atalanta — Napoli

Match Atalanta vs Napoli February 22, 2026

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Atalanta
Atalanta
Home · last 5 L D W L D
Kick-off
Sun 22 Feb · 14:00
2:1
Full-time
Napoli
Napoli
W D L W W Away · last 5
New Balance Arena · Bergamo Referee D. Chiffi
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 52% · book 2.17
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 55% · book 1.85
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.07
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
0.75 – 1.08
Δ −0.33
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.17 — +13.5% better than the market.

Atalanta hosts Napoli in a Serie A clash where Napoli holds a slight quality edge, but Atalanta’s home form and defensive solidity offer a pressing edge. Both teams show balanced attacking and defensive matchups, suggesting a tactical battle. Recent form favors Atalanta, who have shown resilience and sharper momentum. The odds hint at a moderately open game with a decent chance for goals, supported by both sides’ offensive capabilities.

  • Atalanta’s home defense is robust against Napoli’s attack.
  • Napoli’s slight quality advantage could test Atalanta’s compact block.
  • Form and momentum lean towards Atalanta’s favor.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 2.17 ✓ Cashed
AI 52% Implied 46% +1.17u
+117%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · NAP 3-4-2-1
Subs used · ATA
46' Samardzic ↑ · Sulemana
57' Bernasconi ↑ · Bellanova
57' Scamacca ↑ · Krstovic
69' Djimsiti ↑ · Scalvini
84' Ahanor ↑ · Kolasinac
Subs used · NAP
62' Politano ↑ · Gutierrez
63' Spinazzola ↑ · Mazzocchi
70' Olivera ↑ · Jesus
70' Giovane ↑ · Vergara
86' Lukaku ↑ · Santos

📊 Statistics

ATA 21 NAP
56%
Possession (%)
44%
0.75
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.08
10
Total Shots
10
7
Shots on Target
4
2
Shots off Target
4
8
Shots Inside Box
6
6
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
9
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
1
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

15 · 2 – 1
18'
S. Beukema
Assist · M. Gutierrez · 0–1
37'
Juan Jesus
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 1
L. Samardzic ↓ · K. Sulemana ↑
Substitution 1
46'
L. Bernasconi ↓ · R. Bellanova ↑
Substitution 2
57'
G. Scamacca ↓ · N. Krstovic ↑
Substitution 3
57'
M. Pasalic
Assist · N. Zalewski · 1–1
61'
62'
M. Politano ↓ · M. Gutierrez ↑
Substitution 1
63'
L. Spinazzola ↓ · P. Mazzocchi ↑
Substitution 2
B. Djimsiti ↓ · G. Scalvini ↑
Substitution 4
69'
70'
M. Olivera ↓ · Juan Jesus ↑
Substitution 3
70'
Giovane ↓ · A. Vergara ↑
Substitution 4
Nicola Zalewski
Yellow Card
77'
L. Samardzic
Assist · L. Bernasconi · 2–1
81'
H. Ahanor ↓ · S. Kolasinac ↑
Substitution 5
84'
86'
R. Lukaku ↓ · Alisson Santos ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.17 52% Cashed +1.17 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.85 55% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
BTTS No 2.07 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.19 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.80 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.57 32% Cashed +1.57 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.79 32% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
Away Win 3.17 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.57 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.41 60% Cashed +0.41 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.00 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.37 76% Cashed +0.37 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.09 92% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Draw 3.30 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.29 69% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.40 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −3.46u −20% ROI
Best bet of the night · Over 2.5
ATA – NAP @ 2.17
+13.5%
Edge
Forecast →