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Home › Italy › Serie A › Napoli — AS Roma

Napoli vs AS Roma 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sun 15 Feb · 19:45
2:2
Full-time
AS Roma
AS Roma
W W W W W Away · last 5
Referee Andrea Colombo, Italy
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 50% · book 2.43 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 41% · book 2.57 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 46% · book 2.10 ✓
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
0.58 – 1.70
Δ −1.12
Possession
61% – 39%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.34 — +5.3% better than the market.

Napoli hold a clear quality edge and home momentum despite mixed recent form. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Roma’s struggles to break down compact blocks, suggesting a tactical battle where Napoli’s pressing edge could be decisive. The moderate pace implied by odds hints at a controlled game with chances on set-pieces and transitions.

  • Napoli’s defensive strength vs Roma’s moderate attack
  • Home advantage with slight form superiority
  • Potential for a tight, tactical encounter with limited goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 1.34 ✓ Cashed
AI 79% Implied 75% +0.34u
+34%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NAP 3-4-2-1 · ROM 3-4-2-1
NAP · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · ROM 32 Milinković-Savić 31 Beukema 13 Rrahmani 4 Buongiorno 3 Gutiérrez 20 Elmas 68 Lobotka 37 Spinazzola ⚽ 21 Politano 26 Vergara 19 Højlund 99 Svilar 23 Mancini 5 Ndicka 87 Ghilardi 19 Çelik 61 Pisilli 4 Cristante 43 Wesley 97 Zaragoza 7 Pellegrini 14 Malen ⚽
Subs used · NAP
70' Olivera ↑ · Spinazzola ↓
71' Santos ↑ · Rrahmani ↓
79' Gilmour ↑ · Elmas ↓
79' Giovane ↑ · Vergara ↓
84' Mazzocchi ↑ · Politano ↓
Subs used · ROM
46' Soule ↑ · Zaragoza ↓
65' El Aynaoui ↑ · Pisilli ↓
65' Venturino ↑ · Pellegrini ↓
72' Tsimikas ↑ · Franca ↓
72' Vaz ↑ · Malen ↓

Statistics

NAP 2 – 2 ROM
61%
Possession (%)
39%
0.58
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.70
11
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Target
2
1
Shots off Target
4
7
Shots Inside Box
7
2
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
2
14
Fouls
14
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

16 · 2 – 2
7'
⚽
D. Malen
Assist · B. Zaragoza · 0–1
26'
▮
Gianluca Mancini
Yellow Card
L. Spinazzola
Assist · E. Elmas · 1–1
⚽
40'
Half-time · 1 – 1
46'
⇄
M. Soule ↓ · B. Zaragoza ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
N. El Aynaoui ↓ · N. Pisilli ↑
Substitution 2
65'
⇄
L. Venturino ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑
Substitution 3
Amir Rrahmani
Yellow Card
▮
68'
M. Olivera ↓ · L. Spinazzola ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
70'
Alisson Santos ↓ · A. Rrahmani ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
71'
71'
⚽
D. Malen (P)
Penalty · 1–2
72'
⇄
K. Tsimikas ↓ · Wesley Franca ↑
Substitution 4
72'
⇄
R. Vaz ↓ · D. Malen ↑
Substitution 5
B. Gilmour ↓ · E. Elmas ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
79'
Giovane ↓ · A. Vergara ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
Alisson Santos
Assist · Giovane · 2–2
⚽
82'
P. Mazzocchi ↓ · M. Politano ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Napoli and AS Roma drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.70 to 0.58. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: D. Malen (7'), L. Spinazzola (40'), D. Malen (71'), Alisson Santos (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.43 units (Brier 0.246).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.43 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.57 — 41% Cashed +1.57 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.10 — 46% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
BTTS No 1.78 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.60 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 2.70 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.63 — 50% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.61 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.43 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.34 — 79% Cashed +0.34 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.52 — 66% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Draw 3.15 — 29% Cashed +2.15 Cashed
Over 3.5 5.00 — 21% Cashed +4.00 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.12 — 89% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.20 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 7.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.60 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.43u +8% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
NAP – ROM @ 1.34
+5.3%
Edge
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