Match Burnley vs Newcastle December 30, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Newcastle enters Turf Moor with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Burnley’s defensive solidity at home could keep things tight, but Newcastle’s sharper attack and pressing edge may unlock chances. The pace hints at a moderately open game, though both sides have shown signs of defensive caution recently.

Newcastle’s offensive threat contrasts with Burnley’s sturdy defense.
Burnley’s home momentum is limited by recent draws and losses.
Match likely to feature tactical discipline and controlled tempo.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

BUR 3-4-3 · NEW 4-3-3

BUR · 3-4-3 4-3-3 · NEW

17 Tchaouna

Subs used · BUR

15'

Humphreys ↑ ·

Esteve ↓

74'

Bruun Larsen ↑ ·

Tchaouna ↓

88'

Tresor Ndayishimiye ↑ ·

Florentino ↓

88'

Barnes ↑ ·

Ugochukwu ↓

Subs used · NEW

72'

Murphy ↑ ·

Barnes ↓

80'

Woltemade ↑ ·

Wissa ↓

80'

Ramsey ↑ ·

Gordon ↓

90+4'

Willock ↑ ·

Joelinton ↓

📊 Statistics

BUR 1 – 3 NEW

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.06

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.01

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 3

⚽

Joelinton

0–1

⚽

Y. Wissa

0–2

B. Humphreys ↓ · M. Esteve ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

15'

J. Laurent

Assist · A. Broja · 1–2

⚽

23'

Kyle Walker

Yellow Card

▮

28'

▮

Joelinton

Yellow Card

Florentino Luís

Yellow Card

▮

32'

Half-time · 1 – 2

72'

⇄

J. Murphy ↓ · H. Barnes ↑

Substitution 1

J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · L. Tchaouna ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

80'

⇄

N. Woltemade ↓ · Y. Wissa ↑

Substitution 2

80'

⇄

J. Ramsey ↓ · A. Gordon ↑

Substitution 3

M. Tresor Ndayishimiye ↓ · Florentino ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

88'

A. Barnes ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

90'

⚽

Bruno Guimaraes

1–3

90+4'

⇄

J. Willock ↓ · Joelinton ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Newcastle won 3–1 away at Burnley. At half-time it was 1–2.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.01 to 1.06. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 15, 9 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Joelinton (2'), Y. Wissa (7'), J. Laurent (23'), Bruno Guimaraes (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.72 units (Brier 0.186).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.08	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.68	—	65%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
BTTS No	2.06	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.40	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	45%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.87	—	43%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.40	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.80	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.11	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.19	—	87%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.27	—	65%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.10	—	23%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Draw	4.31	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	90%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	—	68%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Home Win	5.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	4.00	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.72u	−22% ROI