Match Atalanta vs Parma January 25, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.17 — +11.5% better than the market.

Atalanta enters this Serie A clash with clear home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a strong attacking edge against Parma's defense. Their compact block and pressing intensity at New Balance Arena should challenge Parma's less potent offense. Parma's form shows resilience but lacks the cutting edge to consistently threaten Atalanta's well-organized defense.

Home side's superior quality and home advantage
Atalanta's attacking pressure vs Parma's defensive frailties
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.17 ✗ Lost

AI 51% Implied 46% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · PAR 3-5-1-1

ATA · 3-4-2-1 3-5-1-1 · PAR

9 Scamacca ⚽

Subs used · ATA

46'

Hien ↑ ·

Djimsiti ↓

60'

Bernasconi ↑ ·

Zalewski ↓

60'

Krstovic ↑ ·

Scamacca ↓

72'

Pasalic ↑ ·

De Ketelaere ↓

78'

Lookman ↑ ·

De Roon ↓

Subs used · PAR

46'

Pellegrino ↑ ·

Benedyczak ↓

46'

Valeri ↑ ·

Circati ↓

46'

Oristanio ↑ ·

Estevez ↓

64'

Ondrejka ↑ ·

Sorensen ↓

85'

Ordonez ↑ ·

Keita ↓

📊 Statistics

ATA 4 – 0 PAR

49%

Possession (%)

51%

4.07

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.38

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 4 – 0

G. Scamacca (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

15'

M. De Roon

Assist · C. De Ketelaere · 2–0

⚽

24'

Half-time · 2 – 0

I. Hien ↓ · B. Djimsiti ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

M. Pellegrino ↓ · A. Benedyczak ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

E. Valeri ↓ · A. Circati ↑

Substitution 2

46'

⇄

G. Oristanio ↓ · N. Estevez ↑

Substitution 3

Gianluca Scamacca

Yellow Card

▮

53'

L. Bernasconi ↓ · N. Zalewski ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

N. Krstovic ↓ · G. Scamacca ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

60'

64'

⇄

J. Ondrejka ↓ · O. Sorensen ↑

Substitution 4

M. Pasalic ↓ · C. De Ketelaere ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

72'

G. Raspadori

Assist · N. Krstovic · 3–0

⚽

73'

A. Lookman ↓ · M. De Roon ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

78'

85'

⇄

C. Ordonez ↓ · M. Keita ↑

Substitution 5

N. Krstovic

4–0

⚽

90'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Atalanta beat Parma 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 4.07 to 1.38. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 15, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 6. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: G. Scamacca (15'), M. De Roon (24'), G. Raspadori (73'), N. Krstovic (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.42 units (Brier 0.144).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.17	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.85	—	55%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.06	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.80	—	49%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.45	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.45	—	72%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.11	—	91%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.10	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.95	—	27%	Cashed	+1.95	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.12	—	72%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.50	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.94	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	73%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Away Win	8.50	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.42u	−26% ROI