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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › Italy › Serie A › Fiorentina — AC Milan

Match Fiorentina vs AC Milan January 11, 2026

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Home · last 5 D L D W D
Kick-off
Sun 11 Jan · 14:00
1:1
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee Davide Massa, Italy
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 55% · book 2.15 ✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 52% · book 2.07 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 54% · book 1.84 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.48 – 1.80
Δ −0.32
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.07 — +7.1% better than the market.

AC Milan enters this Serie A clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Their stronger offensive numbers against Fiorentina's defense hint at effective attacking opportunities, while Milan's compact defensive block could frustrate the hosts. Fiorentina's home momentum is tempered by a slight disadvantage in defensive resilience and recent inconsistency.

  • Milan's pressing edge may disrupt Fiorentina's build-up.
  • Fiorentina's set-piece threat could be a key factor.
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline over wild open play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 2.07 ✗ Lost
AI 52% Implied 48% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FIO 4-3-3 · MIL 3-5-2
FIO · 4-3-3 3-5-2 · MIL 43 Gea 2 Dodô 15 Comuzzo ⚽ 5 Pongračić 21 Gosens 8 Mandragora 44 Fagioli 27 Ndour 65 Parisi 20 Kean 10 Guðmundsson 16 Maignan 5 Winter 46 Gabbia 31 Pavlović 56 Saelemaekers 8 Loftus-Cheek 4 Ricci 30 Jashari 2 Estupiñán 9 Füllkrug 11 Pulišić
Subs used · FIO
65' Brescianini ↑ · Mandragora ↓
82' Solomon ↑ · Gudmundsson ↓
83' Ranieri ↑ · Gosens ↓
83' Fortini ↑ · Parisi ↓
90+1' Sohm ↑ · Ndour ↓
Subs used · MIL
60' Leao ↑ · Fullkrug ↓
60' Rabiot ↑ · Jashari ↓
60' Bartesaghi ↑ · Estupinan ↓
63' Fofana ↑ · Loftus-Cheek ↓
74' Nkunku ↑ · Pavlovic ↓

📊 Statistics

FIO 1 – 1 MIL
52%
Possession (%)
48%
1.48
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.80
20
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Target
3
6
Shots off Target
7
16
Shots Inside Box
9
8
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
14
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 1
Moise Kean
Yellow Card
▮
31'
Half-time · 0 – 0
53'
▮
Pervis Estupiñán
Yellow Card
60'
⇄
R. Leao ↓ · N. Fullkrug ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
A. Rabiot ↓ · A. Jashari ↑
Substitution 2
60'
⇄
D. Bartesaghi ↓ · P. Estupinan ↑
Substitution 3
63'
⇄
Y. Fofana ↓ · R. Loftus-Cheek ↑
Substitution 4
M. Brescianini ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
P. Comuzzo
Assist · A. Gudmundsson · 1–0
⚽
66'
74'
⇄
C. Nkunku ↓ · S. Pavlovic ↑
Substitution 5
Nicolò Fagioli
Yellow Card
▮
80'
M. Solomon ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
82'
L. Ranieri ↓ · R. Gosens ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
83'
N. Fortini ↓ · F. Parisi ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
83'
84'
▮
Adrien Rabiot
Yellow Card
90'
⚽
C. Nkunku
Assist · Y. Fofana · 1–1
S. Sohm ↓ · C. Ndour ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+1'
90+4'
▮
Youssouf Fofana
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.15 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.07 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.84 — 54% Cashed +0.84 Cashed
BTTS No 2.02 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.88 — 48% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.82 — 45% Cashed +0.82 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.71 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.31 — 80% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.50 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.48 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.34 — 76% Cashed +0.34 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.08 — 92% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Draw 3.58 — 26% Cashed +2.58 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.32 — 70% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.50 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 10.50 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.80 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.83u −17% ROI
Best bet of the night · Over 2.5
FIO – MIL @ 2.07
+7.1%
Edge
Forecast →