Match AC Milan vs Genoa January 8, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AC Milan arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Genoa. Their potent attack faces a Genoa defense that has struggled, suggesting Milan’s pressing and creativity could dominate. Genoa’s recent form shows signs of recovery but remains inconsistent, likely to face a compact Milan block aiming to control the game tempo.

Home advantage with a strong defensive record
Superior offensive firepower against a vulnerable defense
Genoa’s patchy form may limit their attacking threat

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

MIL 3-5-2 · GEN 3-5-2

MIL · 3-5-2 3-5-2 · GEN

11 Pulišić

Subs used · MIL

46'

Loftus-Cheek ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

65'

Fullkrug ↑ ·

Saelemaekers ↓

75'

Athekame ↑ ·

Gabbia ↓

Subs used · GEN

64'

Masini ↑ ·

Thorsby ↓

64'

E. Ellertsson ↑ ·

Malinovskyi ↓

75'

Ekhator ↑ ·

Vitinha ↓

83'

Stanciu ↑ ·

Martin ↓

83'

Otoa ↑ ·

Colombo ↓

📊 Statistics

MIL 1 – 1 GEN

61%

Possession (%)

39%

2.32

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.32

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 1

28'

⚽

L. Colombo

Assist · R. Malinovskyi · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

R. Loftus-Cheek ↓ · Y. Fofana ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

64'

⇄

P. Masini ↓ · M. Thorsby ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

M. E. Ellertsson ↓ · R. Malinovskyi ↑

Substitution 2

N. Fullkrug ↓ · A. Saelemaekers ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

Matteo Gabbia

Yellow Card

▮

70'

Z. Athekame ↓ · M. Gabbia ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

⇄

J. Ekhator ↓ · Vitinha ↑

Substitution 3

80'

▮

Nicola Leali

Yellow Card

83'

⇄

N. Stanciu ↓ · A. Martin ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⇄

S. Otoa ↓ · L. Colombo ↑

Substitution 5

R. Leao

1–1

⚽

90'

Mike Maignan

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

Strahinja Pavlović

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

Fikayo Tomori

Yellow Card

▮

90+9'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

AC Milan and Genoa drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.32 to 1.32. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 32 shots to 7, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Colombo (28'), R. Leao (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.29 units (Brier 0.209).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.36	—	47%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.09	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.86	—	49%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
BTTS No	1.63	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.47	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.75	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.10	—	92%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.99	—	29%	Cashed	+1.99	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.14	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.36	—	75%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	92%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	4.66	—	21%	Cashed	+3.66	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.31	—	70%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.40	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	9.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.75	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.29u	−2% ROI