Riga vs Ararat-Armenia 3:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.95 — +15.0% better than the market.

This UEFA Champions League clash features Riga coming off a recent loss while Ararat-Armenia carry momentum from a win. The home side may face a tactical challenge given their form dip, while the visitors look more confident. Expect a cautious pace with a compact defensive setup from both sides, as odds suggest a low-scoring game.

Ararat-Armenia’s recent win boosts their pressing edge
Riga’s home advantage slightly offset by recent form
Low goal expectation favors tight defensive play

Overall, a match likely to be decided by small margins and disciplined defending, with under 2.5 goals a reasonable expectation.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.95 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 51% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

RIG 3-5-2 · ARA 4-3-3

RIG · 3-5-2 4-3-3 · ARA

1 Zviedris 33 Paulo

21 Musah

40 Ankrah 17 Salazar

7 Aouani 8 Augusto

4 Galo

13 Jurkovskis

19 Badamosi 18 M'Hand

Statistics

RIG 3 – 2 ARA

53%

Possession (%)

47%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Corner Kicks

Yellow Cards

Match recap

Riga beat Ararat-Armenia 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 6, 7 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.55 units (Brier 0.231).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.00	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.95	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.06	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.73	—	51%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.83	—	42%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.87	—	41%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	—	81%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.80	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.75	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.18	—	76%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Draw	3.80	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	81%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.45	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	—	65%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.30	—	51%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.25	—	20%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.55u	−21% ROI

Riga vs Ararat-Armenia 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled