AC Milan vs Fiorentina 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.59 — +6.9% better than the market.

Preview & Verdict

AC Milan hosts Fiorentina in a clash where the home side is favored to secure a victory. With an estimated probability of 67.22% and odds of 1.59, Milan's overall strength and home advantage make them the likely winners. The match is expected to be tight, with a potential for fewer goals, as indicated by the Under 2.5 Goals market, which has an estimated probability of 51.99% and odds of 2.03. A Double Chance on Milan or a draw also presents a solid option, given the 89.17% estimated probability.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.59 ✓ Cashed

AI 67% Implied 63% +0.59u

+59%

ROI on stake

Lineups

MIL 3-5-2 · FIO 3-5-1-1

MIL · 3-5-2 3-5-1-1 · FIO

10 Leão ⚽

Subs used · MIL

57'

Gimenez ↑ ·

Athekame ↓

90'

De Winter ↑ ·

Saelemaekers ↓

90+3'

Balentien ↑ ·

Leao ↓

Subs used · FIO

69'

Parisi ↑ ·

Gosens ↓

70'

Gudmundsson ↑ ·

Fazzini ↓

77'

Piccoli ↑ ·

Kean ↓

87'

Sohm ↑ ·

Nicolussi Caviglia ↓

88'

Dzeko ↑ ·

Mandragora ↓

Statistics

MIL 2 – 1 FIO

57%

Possession (%)

43%

2.56

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.07

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 2 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

Zachary Athekame

Yellow Card

▮

50'

54'

▮

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

Yellow Card

55'

⚽

R. Gosens

0–1

S. Gimenez ↓ · Z. Athekame ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

57'

Youssouf Fofana

Yellow Card

▮

60'

R. Leao

Assist · S. Pavlovic · 1–1

⚽

63'

69'

⇄

F. Parisi ↓ · R. Gosens ↑

Substitution 1

70'

⇄

A. Gudmundsson ↓ · J. Fazzini ↑

Substitution 2

Fikayo Tomori

Yellow Card

▮

74'

77'

⇄

R. Piccoli ↓ · M. Kean ↑

Substitution 3

85'

▮

Fabiano Parisi

Yellow Card

R. Leao (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

86'

87'

⇄

S. Sohm ↓ · H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↑

Substitution 4

88'

▮

Luca Ranieri

Yellow Card

88'

⇄

E. Dzeko ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑

Substitution 5

K. De Winter ↓ · A. Saelemaekers ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

90'

C. Balentien ↓ · R. Leao ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

AC Milan beat Fiorentina 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.56 to 1.07. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 5, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Gosens (55'), R. Leao (63'), R. Leao (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.44 units (Brier 0.103).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.59	—	67%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.15	—	89%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.03	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.39	—	73%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	93%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.90	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.35	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.80	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	49%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
BTTS No	1.90	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.80	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.29	—	74%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.92	—	48%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.20	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.56	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.21	—	67%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
AH Away 0	4.75	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.44u	−32% ROI

AC Milan vs Fiorentina 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

Preview & Verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled