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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › Italy › Serie A › AC Milan — Fiorentina

Match AC Milan vs Fiorentina October 19, 2025

Italy   /   Serie A
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 D L L W L
Kick-off
Sun 19 Oct · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
D L D W D Away · last 5
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milan Referee Livio Marinelli, Italy
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 67% · book 1.59 ✓
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 89% · book 1.15 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 52% · book 2.03 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.56 – 1.07
Δ +1.49
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Preview & Verdict

AC Milan hosts Fiorentina in a clash where the home side is favored to secure a victory. With an estimated probability of 67.22% and odds of 1.59, Milan's overall strength and home advantage make them the likely winners. The match is expected to be tight, with a potential for fewer goals, as indicated by the Under 2.5 Goals market, which has an estimated probability of 51.99% and odds of 2.03. A Double Chance on Milan or a draw also presents a solid option, given the 89.17% estimated probability.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

MIL 3-5-2 · FIO 3-5-1-1
MIL · 3-5-2 3-5-1-1 · FIO 16 Maignan 23 Tomori 46 Gabbia 31 Pavlović 24 Athekame 19 Fofana 14 Modrić 4 Ricci 33 Bartesaghi 56 Saelemaekers 10 Leão ⚽ 43 Gea 5 Pongračić 18 Marí 6 Ranieri 2 Dodô 8 Mandragora 14 Caviglia 44 Fagioli 21 Gosens ⚽ 22 Fazzini 20 Kean
Subs used · MIL
57' Gimenez ↑ · Athekame ↓
90' De Winter ↑ · Saelemaekers ↓
90+3' Balentien ↑ · Leao ↓
Subs used · FIO
69' Parisi ↑ · Gosens ↓
70' Gudmundsson ↑ · Fazzini ↓
77' Piccoli ↑ · Kean ↓
87' Sohm ↑ · Nicolussi Caviglia ↓
88' Dzeko ↑ · Mandragora ↓

📊 Statistics

MIL 2 – 1 FIO
57%
Possession (%)
43%
2.56
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.07
14
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Target
1
7
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
2
1
Corner Kicks
3
0
Offsides
2
14
Fouls
5
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
3
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

⏱ Match events

17 · 2 – 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
Zachary Athekame
Yellow Card
▮
50'
54'
▮
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Yellow Card
55'
⚽
R. Gosens
0–1
S. Gimenez ↓ · Z. Athekame ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
57'
Youssouf Fofana
Yellow Card
▮
60'
R. Leao
Assist · S. Pavlovic · 1–1
⚽
63'
69'
⇄
F. Parisi ↓ · R. Gosens ↑
Substitution 1
70'
⇄
A. Gudmundsson ↓ · J. Fazzini ↑
Substitution 2
Fikayo Tomori
Yellow Card
▮
74'
77'
⇄
R. Piccoli ↓ · M. Kean ↑
Substitution 3
85'
▮
Fabiano Parisi
Yellow Card
R. Leao (P)
Penalty · 2–1
⚽
86'
87'
⇄
S. Sohm ↓ · H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↑
Substitution 4
88'
▮
Luca Ranieri
Yellow Card
88'
⇄
E. Dzeko ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑
Substitution 5
K. De Winter ↓ · A. Saelemaekers ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
90'
C. Balentien ↓ · R. Leao ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
90+3'
Full-time · 2 – 1

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.59 — 67% Cashed +0.59 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.15 — 89% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.03 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.39 — 73% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 — 93% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.90 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.35 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 6.80 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.95 — 49% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
BTTS No 1.90 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.80 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.29 — 74% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.92 — 48% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.20 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.56 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.21 — 67% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
AH Away 0 4.75 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.44u −32% ROI