Atalanta hosts Lazio in a clash that promises excitement. Our model suggests Atalanta has a 62.09% chance of winning, with odds at 1.81. The home side's overall strength and attacking profile give them an edge. Meanwhile, the Over 2.5 Goals market shows a slight value with a 53.72% estimated probability against odds of 1.88. Expect a dynamic encounter with potential for goals.
Atalanta and Lazio drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.32 to 0.25. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 4, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +14.15 units (Brier 0.367).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 1.81 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.23 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.23 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.88 | — | 54% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.27 | — | 78% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.78 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 3.5 | 3.10 | — | 32% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 4.20 | — | 23% | Cashed | +3.20 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 4.95 | — | 15% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 2.10 | — | 45% | Cashed | +1.10 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 | — | 95% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 13.90 | — | 5% | Cashed | +12.90 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 4.00 | — | 22% | Cashed | +3.00 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.07 | — | 46% | Cashed | +1.07 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.42 | — | 68% | Cashed | +0.42 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.23 | — | 38% | Cashed | +1.23 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.38 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 3.61 | — | 15% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 9 L | +14.15u | +83% ROI |
