This clash features two strong sides with contrasting recent form trends. AC Milan have shown solid defensive resilience at home and a decent attacking output, while Napoli arrive with a potent attack and consistent winning momentum. The home advantage slightly favors Milan, but Napoli's overall strength and attacking threat make this a finely balanced encounter. Expect a competitive game with goal-scoring chances at both ends, leaning towards a close result. The market suggests a moderately open game with a good chance for both teams to score and a slight edge to the home side in a tight match.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
MIL 3-5-2 · NAP 4-1-4-1📊 Statistics
MIL 2 – 1 NAP36%
Possession (%)
64%
0.74
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
2.85
6
Total Shots
19
3
Shots on Target
7
2
Shots off Target
6
5
Shots Inside Box
12
1
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
0
7
Fouls
7
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
1
Yellow Cards
0
6
Goalkeeper Saves
1
⏱ Match events
15 · 2 – 1Alexis Saelemaekers
Assist · Christian Pulišić · 1–0
3'
Christian Pulišić
Assist · Youssouf Fofana · 2–0
31'
Half-time · 2 – 0
Pervis Estupiñán
Red Card
57'
Davide Bartesaghi ↓ · Christian Pulišić ↑
Substitution 1
59'
60'
⚽
Kevin De Bruyne (P)
Penalty · 2–1
Rafael Leão ↓ · Santiago Giménez ↑
Substitution 2
69'
Zachary Athekame ↓ · Alexis Saelemaekers ↑
Substitution 3
69'
72'
⇄
Eljif Elmas ↓ · Kevin De Bruyne ↑
Substitution 1
73'
⇄
David Neres ↓ · Scott McTominay ↑
Substitution 2
73'
⇄
Lorenzo Lucca ↓ · Rasmus Højlund ↑
Substitution 3
77'
⇄
Noa Lang ↓ · Matteo Politano ↑
Substitution 4
Koni De Winter ↓ · Youssouf Fofana ↑
Substitution 4
80'
Ruben Loftus-Cheek ↓ · Fikayo Tomori ↑
Substitution 5
80'
Adrien Rabiot
Yellow Card
90'
90'
⇄
Billy Gilmour ↓ · Stanislav Lobotka ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 1
Match recap
AC Milan beat Napoli 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.85 to 0.74. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 6, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.
On the scoresheet: Alexis Saelemaekers (3'), Christian Pulišić (31'), Kevin De Bruyne (60'). Pervis Estupiñán was sent off in the 57' minute.
Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 7 landed and 2 missed, for a net +3.66 units (Brier 0.156).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
9 · 7 W · 2 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.91 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.91 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 2.28 | — | 50% | Cashed | +1.28 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.42 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.42 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.78 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.78 | Cashed |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.32 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.32 | Cashed |
| Away Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.42 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.42 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 2.53 | — | 40% | Cashed | +1.53 | Cashed |
| Draw | 3.32 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 3.20 | — | 34% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 9 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 7 W · 2 L | +3.66u | +41% ROI |