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Home › Italy › Serie A › AC Milan — Napoli

AC Milan vs Napoli 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 D L L W L
Kick-off
Sun 28 Sep · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Napoli
Napoli
W D L W W Away · last 5
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza · Milan Referee Daniele Chiffi, Italy
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 65% · book 1.91 ✓
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 50% · book 2.28 ✓
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 65% · book 1.42 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
0.74 – 2.85
Δ −2.11
Possession
36% – 64%
AI accuracy
7 / 9
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.28 — +14.0% better than the market.

This clash features two strong sides with contrasting recent form trends. AC Milan have shown solid defensive resilience at home and a decent attacking output, while Napoli arrive with a potent attack and consistent winning momentum. The home advantage slightly favors Milan, but Napoli's overall strength and attacking threat make this a finely balanced encounter. Expect a competitive game with goal-scoring chances at both ends, leaning towards a close result. The market suggests a moderately open game with a good chance for both teams to score and a slight edge to the home side in a tight match.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 2.28 ✓ Cashed
AI 50% Implied 44% +1.28u
+128%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MIL 3-5-2 · NAP 4-1-4-1
MIL · 3-5-2 4-1-4-1 · NAP 16 Maignan 23 Tomori 46 Gabbia 31 Pavlović 56 Saelemaekers ⚽ 19 Fofana 14 Modrić 12 Rabiot 2 Estupiñán 7 Giménez 11 Pulišić ⚽ 1 Meret 22 Lorenzo 35 Marianucci 5 Jesus 3 Gutiérrez 68 Lobotka 21 Politano 99 Anguissa 8 McTominay 11 Bruyne ⚽ 19 Højlund
Subs used · MIL
59' Bartesaghi ↑ · Pulišić ↓
69' Leão ↑ · Giménez ↓
69' Athekame ↑ · Saelemaekers ↓
80' Winter ↑ · Fofana ↓
80' Loftus-Cheek ↑ · Tomori ↓
Subs used · NAP
72' Elmas ↑ · Bruyne ↓
73' Neres ↑ · McTominay ↓
73' Lucca ↑ · Højlund ↓
77' Lang ↑ · Politano ↓
90' Gilmour ↑ · Lobotka ↓

Statistics

MIL 2 – 1 NAP
36%
Possession (%)
64%
0.74
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.85
6
Total Shots
19
3
Shots on Target
7
2
Shots off Target
6
5
Shots Inside Box
12
1
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
0
7
Fouls
7
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
1
Yellow Cards
0
6
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

15 · 2 – 1
Alexis Saelemaekers
Assist · Christian Pulišić · 1–0
⚽
3'
Christian Pulišić
Assist · Youssouf Fofana · 2–0
⚽
31'
Half-time · 2 – 0
Pervis Estupiñán
Red Card
▮
57'
Davide Bartesaghi ↓ · Christian Pulišić ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
59'
60'
⚽
Kevin De Bruyne (P)
Penalty · 2–1
Rafael Leão ↓ · Santiago Giménez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
69'
Zachary Athekame ↓ · Alexis Saelemaekers ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
69'
72'
⇄
Eljif Elmas ↓ · Kevin De Bruyne ↑
Substitution 1
73'
⇄
David Neres ↓ · Scott McTominay ↑
Substitution 2
73'
⇄
Lorenzo Lucca ↓ · Rasmus Højlund ↑
Substitution 3
77'
⇄
Noa Lang ↓ · Matteo Politano ↑
Substitution 4
Koni De Winter ↓ · Youssouf Fofana ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
Ruben Loftus-Cheek ↓ · Fikayo Tomori ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
Adrien Rabiot
Yellow Card
▮
90'
90'
⇄
Billy Gilmour ↓ · Stanislav Lobotka ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

AC Milan beat Napoli 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.85 to 0.74. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 6, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

On the scoresheet: Alexis Saelemaekers (3'), Christian Pulišić (31'), Kevin De Bruyne (60'). Pervis Estupiñán was sent off in the 57' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 7 landed and 2 missed, for a net +3.66 units (Brier 0.156).

Bet recap · markets settled

9 · 7 W · 2 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.91 — 65% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.28 — 50% Cashed +1.28 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.42 — 65% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.78 — 55% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.32 — 75% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Away Team Total Over 0.5 1.42 — 70% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Home Win 2.53 — 40% Cashed +1.53 Cashed
Draw 3.32 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.20 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 9 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 2 L +3.66u +41% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
MIL – NAP @ 2.28
+14.0%
Edge
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