Match Lecce vs Bologna September 28, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 2.17 — +13.0% better than the market.

This matchup features Lecce struggling to find form and goals at home, while Bologna shows a more balanced and resilient away performance. Lecce's recent results and scoring difficulties suggest a cautious approach, whereas Bologna's steadier form and defensive solidity on the road give them a clear edge. The model leans towards an away win but also acknowledges a reasonable chance of a draw given Lecce's home resilience. Goal expectations are modest, favoring under 2.5 goals and a no BTTS outcome. Asian handicap options on Bologna also present interesting value given their comparative strength and Lecce's offensive challenges.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 2.17 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 46% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEC 4-3-3 · BOL 4-2-3-1

LEC · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · BOL

7 Morente

Subs used · LEC

46'

Veiga ↑ ·

Kouassi ↓

67'

Camarda ↑ ·

Štulić ↓

69'

Ndaba ↑ ·

Gallo ↓

77'

N'Dri ↑ ·

Coulibaly ↓

77'

Banda ↑ ·

Morente ↓

Subs used · BOL

62'

Bernardeschi ↑ ·

Orsolini ↓

68'

Castro ↑ ·

Dallinga ↓

68'

Cambiaghi ↑ ·

Rowe ↓

69'

Odgaard ↑ ·

Fabbian ↓

83'

Silvestri ↑ ·

Holm ↓

📊 Statistics

LEC 2 – 2 BOL

33%

Possession (%)

67%

1.71

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.42

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

66%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 2 – 2

Lassana Coulibaly

1–0

⚽

13'

29'

▮

Thijs Dallinga

Yellow Card

45+1'

⚽

Riccardo Orsolini (P)

Penalty · 1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

Danilo Veiga ↓ · Christ-Owen Kouassi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Kialonda Gaspar

Yellow Card

▮

55'

Ylber Ramadani

Yellow Card

▮

61'

62'

⇄

Federico Bernardeschi ↓ · Riccardo Orsolini ↑

Substitution 1

Antonino Gallo

Yellow Card

▮

66'

Francesco Camarda ↓ · Nikola Štulić ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

68'

⇄

Santiago Castro ↓ · Thijs Dallinga ↑

Substitution 2

68'

⇄

Nicolò Cambiaghi ↓ · Jonathan Rowe ↑

Substitution 3

Corrie Ndaba ↓ · Antonino Gallo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

⇄

Jens Odgaard ↓ · Giovanni Fabbian ↑

Substitution 4

71'

⚽

Jens Odgaard

Assist · Emil Holm · 1–2

Konan N'Dri ↓ · Lassana Coulibaly ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

Lameck Banda ↓ · Tete Morente ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

77'

83'

⇄

Lorenzo De Silvestri ↓ · Emil Holm ↑

Substitution 5

89'

▮

Federico Bernardeschi

Yellow Card

Francesco Camarda

Assist · Medon Berisha · 2–2

⚽

90+4'

Francesco Camarda

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Lecce and Bologna drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 86% of their passes. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Lassana Coulibaly (13'), Riccardo Orsolini (45+1'), Jens Odgaard (71'), Francesco Camarda (90+4').

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 2 landed and 5 missed, for a net -2.43 units (Brier 0.306).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 2 W · 5 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.17	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.58	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.71	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.45	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.29	—	80%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Home Win	4.33	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.28	—	28%	Cashed	+2.28	Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	2 W · 5 L	−2.43u	−35% ROI