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Home › Italy › Serie A › Atalanta — Bologna

Atalanta vs Bologna 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Atalanta
Atalanta
Home · last 5 W L L L W
Kick-off
Mon 31 Aug · 18:45
1:0
Full-time
Bologna
Bologna
L D L D W Away · last 5
Referee Daniele Doveri, Italy
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 54% · book 1.80 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 50% · book 1.93 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 55% · book 1.72 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.16 – 1.35
Δ −1.19
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.00 — +0.5% better than the market.

Atalanta arrives with strong home momentum after a recent win, while Bologna struggles on the road and is coming off a loss. The home side’s pressing edge and solid form suggest they can control the pace, especially given Bologna’s defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a lively match with chances on both ends, supported by odds hinting at a moderately open game with goals likely.

  • Atalanta’s home confidence and recent win
  • Bologna’s away struggles and defensive gaps
  • Potential for a balanced, goal-involved contest

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 4.00 ✗ Lost
AI 25% Implied 25% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ATA 4-3-3 · BOL 4-2-3-1
ATA · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · BOL 29 Carnesecchi 77 Zappacosta 3 Kossounou 42 Scalvini 23 Kolašinac 8 Pašalić 70 Gaetano 13 Éderson 17 Ketelaere 9 Scamacca 18 Raspadori 1 Skorupski 23 Rahim 5 Helland 14 Heggem 2 Holm 4 Pobega 19 Ferguson 10 Bernardeschi 21 Odgaard 28 Cambiaghi 91 Piccoli
Subs used · ATA
55' Zalewski ↑ · De Ketelaere ↓
56' Elmas ↑ · Raspadori ↓
68' Krstovic ↑ · Scamacca ↓
68' Samardzic ↑ · Ederson ↓
78' Bellanova ↑ · Kolasinac ↓
Subs used · BOL
60' Orsolini ↑ · Odgaard ↓
60' Dovbyk ↑ · Piccoli ↓
72' Zortea ↑ · Holm ↓
72' Amondarain ↑ · Pobega ↓
80' Moro ↑ · Orsolini ↓

Statistics

ATA 1 – 0 BOL
42%
Possession (%)
58%
0.16
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.35
6
Total Shots
16
2
Shots on Target
3
2
Shots off Target
10
3
Shots Inside Box
10
1
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
4
10
Fouls
13
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
1
Yellow Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

13 · 1 – 0
Half-time · 0 – 0
N. Zalewski ↓ · C. De Ketelaere ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
55'
E. Elmas ↓ · G. Raspadori ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
56'
60'
⇄
R. Orsolini ↓ · J. Odgaard ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
A. Dovbyk ↓ · R. Piccoli ↑
Substitution 2
61'
▮
D. Tedesco
Yellow Card
N. Krstovic ↓ · G. Scamacca ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
68'
L. Samardzic ↓ · Ederson ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
68'
72'
⇄
N. Zortea ↓ · E. Holm ↑
Substitution 3
72'
⇄
M. Amondarain ↓ · T. Pobega ↑
Substitution 4
N. Krstovic
Yellow Card
▮
73'
R. Bellanova ↓ · S. Kolasinac ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
78'
80'
⇄
N. Moro ↓ · R. Orsolini ↑
Substitution 5
L. Samardzic
Assist · N. Zalewski · 1–0
⚽
90+6'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Atalanta beat Bologna 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.35 to 0.16. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 6, 3 on target.

On the scoresheet: L. Samardzic (90+6').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.32 units (Brier 0.238).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.80 1.91 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.93 1.88 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.72 1.75 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.85 1.93 50% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.00 1.91 46% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
BTTS No 2.02 2.00 45% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.05 3.19 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.22 1.22 75% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.17 2.97 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.00 4.05 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.24 1.28 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.36 1.33 68% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Draw 3.65 3.50 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.84 3.50 23% Cashed +2.84 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.39 1.42 50% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −1.32u −9% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
ATA – BOL @ 4.00
+0.5%
Edge
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