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Home Italy Serie A Atalanta — Bologna

Preview Atalanta vs Bologna August 31, 2026 — Preview and Prediction

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Atalanta
Atalanta
Home · last 5 W
Kick-off
Mon 31 Aug · 18:45
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Bologna
Bologna
L Away · last 5
Home Win · ATA
50%
Best 1.92
Draw
25%
Best 3.80
Away Win · BOL
25%
Best 4.30

🧠 Model verdict

Model leans toward both teams to score — 55% probability.

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

AI preview · 90 sec read

Atalanta arrives with strong home momentum after a recent win, while Bologna struggles on the road and is coming off a loss. The home side’s pressing edge and solid form suggest they can control the pace, especially given Bologna’s defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a lively match with chances on both ends, supported by odds hinting at a moderately open game with goals likely.

  • Atalanta’s home confidence and recent win
  • Bologna’s away struggles and defensive gaps
  • Potential for a balanced, goal-involved contest

Most likely outcomes

What the model rates as most likely in each market.

Market Prob. % Pred.
1X2 50% Atalanta win
Over/Under 2.5 54% Over 2.5
BTTS 55% Yes
Double Chance 75% 1X
  • 1X2 Atalanta win 50%
  • Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54%
  • BTTS Yes 55%
  • Double Chance 1X 75%
Open betting analysis

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win
See full odds

Recent form

Last 5 matches · all competitions
Atalanta
W/D/L 2-2-1
Goals (for / against) 6 / 5
Avg goals / match 2.2
Scored in 3/5
Clean sheets 1/5
Both teams scored 3/5
Over 2.5 2/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-1-1
Away (W-D-L) 1-1-0
xG (for / against) 1.10 / 1.34
Bologna
W/D/L 2-2-1
Goals (for / against) 7 / 6
Avg goals / match 2.6
Scored in 3/5
Clean sheets 2/5
Both teams scored 2/5
Over 2.5 2/5
Home (W-D-L) 0-2-1
Away (W-D-L) 2-0-0
xG (for / against) 1.08 / 0.96

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
2
Goals Scored
0
1
Goals Conceded
1
0.71
Expected Goals (xG)
1.70
7
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
8
56
Possession (%)
59
Efficiency index
Adjusted index
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
20
OFF · home
60
10
DEF · home
80
OFF · away
DEF · away
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

🎯 Scenario insights

Atalanta wins when scoring first
80%
Bologna wins when scoring first
100%
Atalanta BTTS rate · last 10
50%
Bologna BTTS rate · last 10
30%
Atalanta Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
Bologna Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
Atalanta comeback rate · last 10
0%
Bologna comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Atalanta · last 10 at home

0–15 27%
16–30 13%
31–45 7%
46–60 0%
61–75 27%
76–90 27%

Bologna · last 10 away

0–15 20%
16–30 20%
31–45 20%
46–60 13%
61–75 7%
76–90 20%
Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.

Top scorers

N. Krstović
ATA · Attacker
1 G
G. Raspadori
ATA · Attacker
1 G