Match Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin May 9, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Jagiellonia holds a clear quality edge and home momentum against Pogon Szczecin, who have struggled away despite recent wins. The home side's stronger defense and slightly better attacking edge suggest they can control the game tempo. Pogon's resilience and counter-attacking threat could test Jagiellonia's compact block, but the home side's form and tactical setup favor a controlled, possibly low-to-medium scoring match.

Home advantage with a solid defensive base
Jagiellonia's pressing edge vs Pogon's counter-attack
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

📊 Statistics

JAG 3 – 2 POG

56%

Possession (%)

44%

2.09

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.96

20

Total Shots

10

14

Shots on Target

3

Shots off Target

3

11

Shots Inside Box

7

Corner Kicks

0

3

Offsides

0

17

Fouls

19

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

1

Yellow Cards

0

1

Goalkeeper Saves

11

Match recap

Jagiellonia beat Pogon Szczecin 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.09 to 0.96. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 10, 14 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 11 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.79 units (Brier 0.162).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.85	—	59%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.25	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.61	—	50%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.91	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.43	—	29%	Cashed	+1.43	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.40	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	82%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	53%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.33	—	59%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.90	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	92%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	3.90	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.14	—	74%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.81	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.84	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.79u	−28% ROI