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Home Poland Ekstraklasa Jagiellonia — Pogon Szczecin

Predictions Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin May 9, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Poland   /   Ekstraklasa Value pick inside
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
Home · last 5 L W W D W
Kick-off
Sat 09 May · 15:30
3:2
Full-time
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
D W L W D Away · last 5
Referee W. Myc
Home Win · JAG
59%
Best 1.85
Draw
23%
Best 3.90
Away Win · POG
18%
Best 3.84
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.40
Fair odds
3.84
book 4.40 · +14.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 26% · EV +14.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (74%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 58.5%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 23.4%
Odds 3.90
Show model details
Implied probability 25.6%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 18.1%
Odds 3.84
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 49.7%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 50.3%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 29.4%
Odds 2.43
Show model details
Implied probability 41.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 26.1%
Odds 4.40
Show model details
Implied probability 22.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 70.7%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7.8%
Odds 14.90
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.3%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 74%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 47.1%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.9%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 58.5%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 18.1%
Odds 2.81
Show model details
Implied probability 35.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 41.5%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 81.9%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
JAG – POG @ 4.40
+14.6%
Edge
Forecast →