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Home › Poland › Ekstraklasa › Pogon Szczecin — Korona Kielce

Prediction: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce, October 11

Poland   /   Ekstraklasa Value pick inside
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
Home · last 5 D D D W W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 15:30
—:—
Pre-match · scheduled
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
W D W L W Away · last 5
Florian-Krygier-Stadion · Szczecin Referee Piotr Lasyk

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · POG
51%
Best 2.20
Draw
26%
Best 3.48
Away Win · KOR
23%
Best 3.10

Model verdict

Model leans toward Pogon Szczecin to win — 51% probability.

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

AI preview · 90 sec read

Most likely outcomes

What the model rates as most likely in each market.

Market Prob. % Pred.
1X2 51% Pogon Szczecin win
BTTS 51% No
Double Chance 77% 1X
  • 1X2 Pogon Szczecin win 51%
  • BTTS No 51%
  • Double Chance 1X 77%
Open betting analysis

Recent form

Last 5 matches · all competitions
Pogon Szczecin
W/D/L 2-3-0
Goals (for / against) 7 / 4
Avg goals / match 2.2
Scored in 4/5
Clean sheets 2/5
Both teams scored 3/5
Over 2.5 2/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-2-0
Away (W-D-L) 1-1-0
xG (for / against) 0.95 / 1.06
Korona Kielce
W/D/L 3-1-1
Goals (for / against) 8 / 6
Avg goals / match 2.8
Scored in 4/5
Clean sheets 1/5
Both teams scored 3/5
Over 2.5 2/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-1-1
Away (W-D-L) 2-0-0
xG (for / against) 0.92 / 2.25

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.50
Goals Scored
1.33
0.75
Goals Conceded
1.11
0.77
Expected Goals (xG)
0.49
4.75
Shots on Target
3.78
3.63
Corners
4.11
42.63
Possession (%)
39.56
101.66
Efficiency index
107.86
107.08
Adjusted index
97.48
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
50
OFF · home
0
67
DEF · home
56
11
OFF · away
50
94
DEF · away
67
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

Scenario insights

①
Pogon Szczecin wins when scoring first
—
①
Korona Kielce wins when scoring first
—
⚽
Pogon Szczecin BTTS rate · last 10
50%
⚽
Korona Kielce BTTS rate · last 10
70%
↑
Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5 · last 10
30%
↑
Korona Kielce Over 2.5 · last 10
30%
↩
Pogon Szczecin comeback rate · last 10
—
↩
Korona Kielce comeback rate · last 10
0%

Goal timing

Pogon Szczecin · last 4 at home

0–15 11%
16–30 11%
31–45 22%
46–60 22%
61–75 0%
76–90 33%

Korona Kielce · last 5 away

0–15 17%
16–30 0%
31–45 0%
46–60 33%
61–75 50%
76–90 0%
Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.

Top scorers

Jordi Sánchez
POG · Attacker
8 G · 0.95 g/90
P. Mukairu
POG · Midfielder
1 G · 0.35 g/90
M. Stępiński
KOR · Attacker
6 G · 0.76 g/90
M. Faßbender
KOR · Attacker
3 G · 0.56 g/90