Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen 1:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 3.50 — +14.4% better than the market.

Ajax hosts NEC Nijmegen in a clash where home momentum and quality edge stand out. Ajax's stronger defensive setup and home comfort provide a pressing edge against NEC's decent but less consistent attack. Recent form shows Ajax with a slight upper hand, while the match hints at a moderate tempo with goal opportunities on both ends.

Ajax's robust defense vs NEC's attack
Home advantage in Johan Cruijff Arena
Balanced pace suggesting tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 3.50 ✓ Cashed

AI 33% Implied 29% +2.50u

+250%

ROI on stake

Lineups

AJA 4-3-3 · NIJ 3-4-2-1

AJA · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · NIJ

10 Gloukh

Statistics

AJA 1 – 1 NIJ

61%

Possession (%)

39%

1.86

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.11

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Ajax and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.86 to 1.11. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 8, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 6 landed and 5 missed, for a net +5.99 units (Brier 0.308).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 6 W · 5 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	2.01	—	54%	Cashed	+1.01	Cashed
BTTS No	2.62	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.84	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.50	—	33%	Cashed	+2.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	92%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Home Win	1.36	—	74%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.53	—	63%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.19	—	26%	Cashed	+2.19	Cashed
Draw	5.62	—	18%	Cashed	+4.62	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.30	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	9.50	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	6 W · 5 L	+5.99u	+54% ROI

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled