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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Ajax — NEC Nijmegen

Predictions by Market: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Ajax
Ajax
Home · last 5 L W W D D
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 19:00
1:1
Full-time
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
L D L D D Away · last 5
Johan Cruijff Arena · Amsterdam Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AJA
74%
Best 1.34
Draw
18%
Best 5.90
Away Win · NIJ
8%
Best 7.90
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 3.50
Fair odds
3.06
book 3.50 · +14.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
—
Pick confidence
Medium
p 33% · EV +14.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (67%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 74.4%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 18%
Odds 5.62
Show model details
Implied probability 17.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 7.7%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 4 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 54.2%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5 Best in group
Probability 67.3%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 36.8%
Odds 2.62
Show model details
Implied probability 38.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92.3%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 25.6%
Odds 3.19
Show model details
Implied probability 31.4%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
AJA – NIJ @ 3.50
+14.4%
Edge
Forecast →