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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Willem II — Fortuna Sittard

Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Willem II
Willem II
Home · last 5 D L D L L
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 19:00
0:1
Full-time
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
W W L W D Away · last 5
Koning Willem II Stadion · Tilburg Referee Dennis Higler
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 68% · book 1.64 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 47% · book 2.40 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 43% · book 2.66 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
5 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.40 — +13.4% better than the market.

Willem II faces a tough challenge at home against Fortuna Sittard, who show better recent form and higher points per game. Willem II’s struggles in attack and defense contrast with Fortuna’s momentum, suggesting an away edge. The match may lean towards a compact, cautious battle given the moderate goal expectations and odds favoring under 3.5 goals.

  • Fortuna’s recent wins hint at growing confidence.
  • Willem II’s home form lacks sharpness.
  • Likely a tactical, low-to-mid tempo game with limited clear-cut chances.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.40 ✓ Cashed
AI 47% Implied 42% +1.40u
+140%
ROI on stake

Statistics

WIL 0 – 1 SIT
46%
Possession (%)
54%
15
Total Shots
17
3
Shots on Target
3
6
Shots off Target
11
9
Shots Inside Box
7
5
Corner Kicks
3
9
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match recap

Fortuna Sittard won 1–0 away at Willem II. At half-time it was 0–0.

For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -0.39 units (Brier 0.224).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.64 — 68% Cashed +0.64 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.40 — 47% Cashed +1.40 Cashed
BTTS No 2.66 — 43% Cashed +1.66 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.62 — 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.44 — 40% Cashed +1.44 Cashed
Home Win 2.72 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.31 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.47 — 64% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.44 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.53 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.90 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 6 L −0.39u −4% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
WIL – SIT @ 2.40
+13.4%
Edge
Forecast →