Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax 1:5 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 3.10 — +4.2% better than the market.

Ajax arrives with a slight form edge and higher scoring potential, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite Fortuna's solid home momentum. The home side's recent resilience and ability to capitalize on set-pieces could challenge Ajax's defense, which has shown some vulnerability. Expect a lively encounter with a moderate tempo, leaning towards an open game given the goal odds.

Ajax's attacking threat versus Fortuna's defensive setup
Fortuna's home confidence and set-piece threat
Moderate pace hinting at chances for both sides

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 3.10 ✗ Lost

AI 34% Implied 32% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

SIT 5-3-2 · AJA 4-3-3

SIT · 5-3-2 4-3-3 · AJA

10 Romeny

Statistics

SIT 1 – 5 AJA

34%

Possession (%)

66%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Ajax won 5–1 away at Fortuna Sittard. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 66% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 27 shots to 8, 11 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 11 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -3.61 units (Brier 0.142).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.88	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.45	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.97	—	45%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	3.00	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.10	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	7.06	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.42	—	60%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.53	—	62%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.11	—	80%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Draw	5.10	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.36	—	66%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 6 L	−3.61u	−33% ROI

Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax 1:5: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled