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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › AZ Alkmaar — Willem II

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W W D W L
Kick-off
Fri 11 Sep · 18:00
1:1
Full-time
Willem II
Willem II
D L D L L Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） · Alkmaar Referee M. van den Kerkhof
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.95 ✓
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 58% · book 1.78 ✗
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 42% · book 2.09 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
5 / 10
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 1.78 — +3.5% better than the market.

AZ Alkmaar arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a perfect recent run and a high points per game rate. Their attacking threat is likely to test Willem II's defense, which has struggled lately. The visitors' inconsistent form and lower scoring potential suggest AZ's compact block and pressing edge could dominate. Expect a lively pace given the odds favoring goals, with both teams showing signs of finding the net.

  • AZ's home confidence and attacking sharpness
  • Willem II's defensive vulnerabilities
  • Potential for open play and goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 1.78 ✗ Lost
AI 58% Implied 56% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

ALK 1 – 1 WIL
67%
Possession (%)
33%
22
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Target
2
15
Shots off Target
3
16
Shots Inside Box
6
11
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
1
7
Fouls
8
0
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match recap

AZ Alkmaar and Willem II drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 8, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 5 landed and 5 missed, for a net +8.52 units (Brier 0.353).

Bet recap · markets settled

10 · 5 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.95 — 60% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Over 3.5 1.78 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 2.09 — 42% Cashed +1.09 Cashed
BTTS No 1.91 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 17.00 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 9.85 — 13% Cashed +8.85 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.03 — 88% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Home Win 1.14 — 75% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.28 — 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.60 — 23% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Total · 10 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 5 L +8.52u +85% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
ALK – WIL @ 1.78
+3.5%
Edge
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