Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 2.80 — +6.9% better than the market.

Excelsior hosts Sparta Rotterdam in a clash where the visitors show more consistent form and attacking threat. Sparta’s recent performances suggest a sharper edge in creating chances, while Excelsior’s home momentum is less convincing. The pace hints at an open game with goals likely, supported by both sides’ tendency to find the net.

Sparta’s better recent form and higher scoring potential
Excelsior’s home resilience could keep it tight early
Expect a lively tempo favoring goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 2.80 ✗ Lost

AI 38% Implied 36% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EXC 4-3-3 · SPA 4-2-3-1

EXC · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · SPA

30 Þorsteinsson

Statistics

EXC 2 – 1 SPA

43%

Possession (%)

57%

1.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.97

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Excelsior beat Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -2.43 units (Brier 0.184).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.80	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.67	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.31	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.66	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.64	—	56%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Home Win	2.42	—	37%	Cashed	+1.42	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.44	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.48	—	62%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.53	—	64%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.50	—	65%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Draw	3.88	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 6 L	−2.43u	−22% ROI

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled