Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard 2:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.70 — +8.9% better than the market.

Groningen shows signs of home momentum with a stronger recent form and higher points per game, suggesting they hold a slight edge at Euroborg. Their attacking potential appears more promising compared to Fortuna Sittard’s defense, hinting at opportunities to break through. The match could see a lively pace given the odds favoring over 2.5 goals, supporting an open game with chances on both ends.

Home side’s recent wins build confidence
Attacking mismatch favors Groningen
Potential for a goal-rich encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.70 ✓ Cashed

AI 40% Implied 37% +1.70u

+170%

ROI on stake

Lineups

GRO 4-2-3-1 · SIT 3-4-2-1

GRO · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · SIT

9 Willumsson

Statistics

GRO 2 – 3 SIT

68%

Possession (%)

32%

1.47

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.88

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Fortuna Sittard won 3–2 away at Groningen. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.47 to 0.88. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 9, 2 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.88 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net +2.72 units (Brier 0.292).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.70	—	40%	Cashed	+1.70	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.80	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.42	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.05	—	44%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Home Win	1.50	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.00	—	20%	Cashed	+5.00	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.88	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.44	—	65%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.53	—	61%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.89	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 6 L	+2.72u	+25% ROI

Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard 2:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled