Leeds vs Liverpool 3:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.86 — +11.9% better than the market.

Liverpool enter Elland Road with a clear quality edge and a pressing advantage, despite recent patchy form. Leeds' home momentum is dented by defensive vulnerabilities against Liverpool's sharper attack, suggesting the visitors can control the tempo. Expect Liverpool to exploit their superior offensive firepower and defensive solidity to dictate play.

Liverpool's stronger overall quality and defensive resilience
Leeds' recent struggles and defensive gaps
Likely controlled pace favoring Liverpool's tactical setup

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.86 ✗ Lost

AI 60% Implied 54% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

LEE 3-5-2 · LIV 4-2-3-1

LEE · 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 · LIV

19 Okafor

Subs used · LEE

65'

Tanaka ↑ ·

Gruev ↓

65'

Aaronson ↑ ·

Bijol ↓

65'

Gnonto ↑ ·

Okafor ↓

87'

Piroe ↑ ·

Ampadu ↓

90+3'

Bornauw ↑ ·

Bogle ↓

Subs used · LIV

68'

Gomez ↑ ·

Bradley ↓

68'

Mac Allister ↑ ·

Wirtz ↓

83'

Endo ↑ ·

Gakpo ↓

84'

Isak ↑ ·

Ekitike ↓

Statistics

LEE 3 – 3 LIV

45%

Possession (%)

55%

1.51

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.92

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

21 · 3 – 3

Jayden Bogle

Yellow Card

▮

20'

Gabriel Gudmundsson

Yellow Card

▮

26'

45+3'

▮

Conor Bradley

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

48'

⚽

H. Ekitike

0–1

50'

⚽

H. Ekitike

0–2

A. Tanaka ↓ · I. Gruev ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

B. Aaronson ↓ · J. Bijol ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

W. Gnonto ↓ · N. Okafor ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

68'

⇄

J. Gomez ↓ · C. Bradley ↑

Substitution 1

68'

⇄

A. Mac Allister ↓ · F. Wirtz ↑

Substitution 2

D. Calvert-Lewin (P)

Penalty · 1–2

⚽

73'

A. Stach

Assist · B. Aaronson · 2–2

⚽

75'

80'

▮

Virgil van Dijk

Yellow Card

80'

⚽

D. Szoboszlai

Assist · R. Gravenberch · 2–3

83'

⇄

W. Endo ↓ · C. Gakpo ↑

Substitution 3

84'

⇄

A. Isak ↓ · H. Ekitike ↑

Substitution 4

J. Piroe ↓ · E. Ampadu ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

87'

Pascal Struijk

Yellow Card

▮

89'

A. Tanaka

3–3

⚽

90'

90+1'

▮

Joe Gomez

Yellow Card

S. Bornauw ↓ · J. Bogle ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 3 – 3

Match recap

Leeds and Liverpool drew 3–3. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 7 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: H. Ekitike (48'), H. Ekitike (50'), D. Calvert-Lewin (73'), A. Stach (75'), D. Szoboszlai (80'), A. Tanaka (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.20 units (Brier 0.199).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.86	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.73	—	58%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.75	—	36%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
BTTS No	2.38	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.28	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.64	—	59%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.07	—	40%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.40	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.26	—	83%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	80%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.90	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.07	—	23%	Cashed	+3.07	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.16	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.32	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.20u	−7% ROI

Leeds vs Liverpool 3:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled