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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Alverca — Rio Ave

Alverca vs Rio Ave 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 17:00
1:0
Full-time
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
W L L D L Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverkaduribajo Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 64% · book 1.79 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 58% · book 1.95 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 58% · book 1.88 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.79 — +13.8% better than the market.

Primeira Liga Preview: Alverca vs Rio Ave

Alverca holds a clear quality edge and a solid home defensive record, suggesting they can control the game tempo. Despite Rio Ave's slightly better recent form, their defensive vulnerability against Alverca's attack could be decisive. Expect a tactical battle with Alverca leveraging home momentum and a compact block to limit Rio Ave's chances. The odds hint at a cautious pace and a likely low-scoring affair.

  • Alverca's home defensive solidity versus Rio Ave's moderate attack
  • Recent form favors Rio Ave but quality gap supports Alverca
  • Anticipate a controlled tempo with limited goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.79 ✓ Cashed
AI 64% Implied 56% +0.79u
+79%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · RIO 4-2-3-1
Subs used · ALV
68' Vidigal ↑ · Santos ↓
68' Semedo ↑ · Sankharé ↓
74' Franca ↑ · Chiquinho ↓
84' Bojang ↑ · Chissumba ↓
84' Rafael ↑ · Lucas ↓
Subs used · RIO
59' Vrushai ↑ · Amaral ↓
59' Clemensen ↑ · Galcik ↓
69' Sellouki ↑ · Patricío ↓
69' Monteiro ↑ · Baptista ↓
69' Valença ↑ · Nikitscher ↓

Statistics

ALV 1 – 0 RIO
48%
Possession (%)
52%
23
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Target
3
11
Shots off Target
2
16
Shots Inside Box
1
8
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

15 · 1 – 0
Dawda Camara Sankharé
Assist · Francisco Chiquinho · 1–0
⚽
3'
Half-time · 1 – 0
59'
⇄
Marios Vrushai ↓ · Pedro Amaral ↑
Substitution 1
59'
⇄
Sebastian Clemensen ↓ · Roland Galcik ↑
Substitution 2
André Vidigal ↓ · Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
Vivaldo Semedo ↓ · Dawda Camara Sankharé ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
69'
⇄
Malik Sellouki ↓ · Miguel Patricío ↑
Substitution 3
69'
⇄
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro ↓ · João Tomé Baptista ↑
Substitution 4
69'
⇄
Caike Lourenço Valença ↓ · Tamas Nikitscher ↑
Substitution 5
Matheus Franca ↓ · Francisco Chiquinho ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
Yaya Bojang ↓ · Francisco Chissumba ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
Zé Rafael ↓ · Rayan Lucas ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
87'
▮
Simón García
Yellow Card
Davy Gui
Yellow Card
▮
88'
André Vidigal
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
90+5'
▮
Francisco Petrasso
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Alverca beat Rio Ave 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 6, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Dawda Camara Sankharé (3').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.26 units (Brier 0.127).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.79 1.90 64% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 1.95 58% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Home Win 1.88 1.87 58% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.87 1.82 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.80 1.80 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.07 1.94 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.19 3.40 39% Cashed +2.19 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.20 9.26 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.26 1.29 83% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.24 1.25 83% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 1.05 84% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 3.50 3.55 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.09 3.17 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.39 1.36 58% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 1.28 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.00 4.10 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.45 3.25 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.26u −19% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
ALV – RIO @ 1.79
+13.8%
Edge
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