Sporting CP vs Arouca 2:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.92 — +14.5% better than the market.

Sporting CP carry clear home momentum with a strong recent run and a notable quality edge over Arouca. Their offensive firepower faces a less robust Arouca defense, suggesting chances to control the game. The home side's compact block and set-piece threat could exploit Arouca's defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a moderately paced match leaning towards Sporting's dominance but with a cautious approach given Arouca's resilience.

Home attacking edge vs away defense
Recent form favors Sporting
Moderate tempo with tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.92 ✗ Lost

AI 60% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

SPO 4-2-3-1 · ARO 4-2-3-1

SPO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · ARO

97 Suárez ⚽

Subs used · SPO

57'

Quaresma ↑ ·

Irankunda ↓

66'

Andersen ↑ ·

Zalazar ↓

86'

Barros ↑ ·

Doumbia ↓

86'

Ioannidis ↑ ·

Suárez ↓

Subs used · ARO

45'

Rukavina ↑ ·

Flores ↓

59'

Santos ↑ ·

Ee ↓

69'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

86'

Nandín ↑ ·

Sánchez ↓

86'

Mayulu ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

Statistics

SPO 2 – 2 ARO

54%

Possession (%)

46%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

23 · 2 – 2

Gonçalo Inácio

Assist · Maximiliano Araujo · 1–0

⚽

Luis Suárez

Assist · Iván Fresneda · 2–0

⚽

17'

36'

▮

Espen van Ee

Yellow Card

44'

▮

Javi Sánchez

Yellow Card

45'

⇄

Gabrijel Rukavina ↓ · Mateo Flores ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 2 – 0

51'

▮

Jose Fontán

Yellow Card

Zeno Debast

Red Card

▮

54'

Eduardo Quaresma ↓ · Nestory Irankunda ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

57'

59'

⇄

Pedro Santos ↓ · Espen van Ee ↑

Substitution 2

Luis Suárez

Yellow Card

▮

61'

▮

Pedro Santos

Yellow Card

Silas Andersen ↓ · Rodrigo Zalazar ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

69'

⇄

Brian Mansilla ↓ · Alfonso Trezza ↑

Substitution 3

Eduardo Quaresma

Yellow Card

▮

80'

81'

⚽

Jose Fontán (P)

Penalty · 2–1

86'

⇄

Dylan Nandín ↓ · Javi Sánchez ↑

Substitution 4

86'

⇄

Fally Mayulu ↓ · Iván Barbero ↑

Substitution 5

Pedro Lima Barros ↓ · Issa Doumbia ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

86'

Fotis Ioannidis ↓ · Luis Suárez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

87'

⚽

Dylan Nandín

2–2

90+2'

▮

Brian Mansilla

Yellow Card

Maximiliano Araujo

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

Gonçalo Inácio

Yellow Card

▮

90+8'

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Sporting CP and Arouca drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 5 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Gonçalo Inácio (3'), Luis Suárez (17'), Jose Fontán (81'), Dylan Nandín (87'). Zeno Debast was sent off in the 54' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +3.98 units (Brier 0.299).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.92	1.80	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.80	1.72	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	2.01	44%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.90	2.00	40%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.89	2.88	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.13	6.49	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.03	1.03	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.18	1.17	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.04	1.04	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	7.00	7.52	15%	Cashed	+6.00	Cashed
Double Chance X2	4.65	5.00	20%	Cashed	+3.65	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.09	1.10	75%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.36	1.40	58%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Away Win	14.00	14.08	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	13.00	10.99	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	+3.98u	+27% ROI

Sporting CP vs Arouca 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled