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Guimaraes vs Moreirense 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W L D L D
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 14:30
1:1
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
L L W D L Away · last 5
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques · Guimarães Referee Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 47% · book 2.39 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.80 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 61% · book 1.75 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
Possession
66% – 34%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.39 — +12.7% better than the market.

Guimaraes face a tough challenge against Moreirense, who hold a slight quality edge and better recent form. Guimaraes' defensive solidity contrasts with Moreirense's less effective attack, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. The home side's pressing edge and set-piece threat could be key, but Moreirense's compact block and counter opportunities keep the game tight.

  • Home momentum hampered by inconsistent form
  • Moreirense's defensive resilience vs Guimaraes' attack
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring a cautious approach

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 2.39 ✓ Cashed
AI 47% Implied 42% +1.39u
+139%
ROI on stake

Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · MOR 4-2-3-1
Subs used · GUI
12' Nogueira ↑ · Silva ↓
57' Mukendi ↑ · Guimarães ↓
57' Mitrović ↑ · Nogueira ↓
57' Silva ↑ · Doucet ↓
72' Andersson ↑ · Camara ↓
Subs used · MOR
63' Maranhão ↑ · Vonić ↓
63' Songa ↑ · Bondoso ↓
66' Alonso ↑ · Andrade ↓
67' Araújo ↑ · Mendonça ↓
89' Monteiro ↑ · John ↓

Statistics

GUI 1 – 1 MOR
66%
Possession (%)
34%
16
Total Shots
7
5
Shots on Target
3
8
Shots off Target
4
11
Shots Inside Box
4
3
Corner Kicks
0
1
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
13
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

12 · 1 – 1
Miguel Nogueira ↓ · Gustavo Silva ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
12'
Half-time · 0 – 0
52'
⚽
Tiago Andrade
Assist · Leonardo Vonić · 0–1
Beni Mukendi ↓ · Alan de Souza Guimarães ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
57'
Matija Mitrović ↓ · Gonçalo Nogueira ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
57'
Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva ↓ · Lohann Doucet ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
57'
63'
⇄
Yan Maranhão ↓ · Leonardo Vonić ↑
Substitution 1
63'
⇄
Chipyoka Songa ↓ · Kiko Bondoso ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⇄
Rodrigo Alonso ↓ · Tiago Andrade ↑
Substitution 3
67'
⇄
Landerson Costa Araújo ↓ · Manuel Mendonça ↑
Substitution 4
Victor Andersson ↓ · Oumar Camara ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
72'
89'
⇄
Kevyn Monteiro ↓ · Nile John ↑
Substitution 5
Toni Borevković
Assist · Miguel Nogueira · 1–1
⚽
90+6'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Guimaraes and Moreirense drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 7, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 3 to 0.

On the scoresheet: Tiago Andrade (52'), Toni Borevković (90+6').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.22 units (Brier 0.179).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 2.39 2.66 47% Cashed +1.39 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.80 1.95 60% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
BTTS No 1.75 1.75 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.00 1.85 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.00 1.96 39% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Away Win 6.15 7.58 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.24 3.75 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.12 1.10 76% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Home Win 1.43 1.43 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 10.99 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.63 5.62 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.27 1.33 79% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 1.02 89% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 3.87 4.22 23% Cashed +2.87 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.29 1.22 66% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.39 3.00 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.15 1.11 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.22u −13% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
GUI – MOR @ 2.39
+12.7%
Edge
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